A significant disconnect is emerging between Fed policy and inflation data. The Federal Reserve is signaling a dovish shift, prioritizing labor market risks and viewing inflation as transitory, even as forecasts show both headline and core inflation accelerating into the fourth quarter.

Despite progress on shelter inflation, core services excluding shelter (the "super core") remain sticky. This persistence, linked to wage components, is a primary reason the Federal Reserve will likely pursue a gradual pace of interest rate cuts rather than a more aggressive easing policy.

A more aggressive Federal Reserve reaction function is interpreted as a tightening signal by inflation markets. This leads to lower inflation break-evens and higher real yields, a counter-intuitive move compared to when the Fed and markets react in tandem to strong economic data.

Recent bond market volatility stems from a Fed credibility issue, not just rate expectations. Uncertainty over which inflation metric the Fed is targeting (e.g., Core PCE vs. Dallas Trimmed Mean) creates ambiguity about its reaction function, fueling investor fear and raising the term premium.

The US economy is showing stagflationary characteristics. GDP growth is weakening and projected to remain soft, while key inflation measures like PCE are nearly double the Fed's 2% target. This toxic mix limits the Federal Reserve's ability to support the economy without worsening price pressures.

To predict future price changes for consumers, one should analyze the producer inflation report, not just the consumer report. Businesses experience rising costs first and typically pass these increases on to customers later. A high producer inflation rate suggests consumer inflation will soon follow.

The Federal Reserve can tolerate inflation running above its 2% target as long as long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. This is the critical variable that gives them policy flexibility. The market's belief in the Fed's long-term credibility is what matters most.

While equities had a mixed reaction to inflation data, the bond market shows clearer concern. FedWatch data reveals a significant shift in expectations over the past month, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by year-end rising to 30%, while the probability of a cut has diminished.

Focusing on falling oil prices as a sign of easing inflation is simplistic. Leading indicators like the sectoral breakdown of payrolls and a core PPI that has jumped from a 3% to a 5% handle in six months suggest a stickier, more concerning inflation outlook for the Federal Reserve.