The "Buy, Borrow, Die" tax strategy concentrates immense wealth, making the broader economy unhealthily dependent on the spending habits of the ultra-rich. As noted by The Wall Street Journal, this creates systemic risk; if the wealthy pull back spending, it could trigger a recession.
The wealthiest 10% of Americans account for nearly half of all consumer spending. This concentration of economic power means a small, targeted spending reduction from this group alone can curb national GDP almost overnight, making them a crucial and highly efficient lever in any economic strike.
The wealthy build wealth by buying assets, borrowing against them tax-free for living expenses, and then passing the assets to heirs with a "stepped-up basis" upon death. This maneuver effectively eliminates capital gains taxes for the next generation.
The wealthiest individuals don't have traditional paychecks. Instead, they hold appreciating assets like stock and take out loans against that wealth to fund their lifestyles. This avoids triggering capital gains or income taxes, a key reason proponents are pushing for a direct wealth tax in California to address this loophole.
The U.S. economy can no longer be analyzed as a single entity. It has split into two distinct economies: one for the thriving top tier (e.g., AI and tech) and another for the struggling bottom 60%. The entire system now depends on spending from the rich; if they stop, the economy collapses.
The top 10% of earners, who drive 50% of consumer spending, can slash discretionary purchases overnight based on stock market fluctuations. This makes the economy more volatile than one supported by the stable, non-discretionary spending of the middle class, creating systemic fragility.
Analysis reveals a heavy concentration of spending at the top: the highest decile of income earners is now responsible for 49.2% of all personal outlays. This makes the overall US economy highly dependent on the financial health and confidence of a very small, affluent segment of the population, increasing systemic risk.
The economy is now driven by high-income earners whose spending fluctuates with the stock market. Unlike historical recessions, a significant market downturn is now a prerequisite for a broader economic recession, as equities must fall to curtail spending from this key demographic.
With the top 10% of earners accounting for half of all consumer spending, the U.S. economy has become dangerously top-heavy. This concentration creates systemic risk, as a stock market downturn or even a minor shift toward caution among this small group could trigger a sharp recession, with no offsetting demand from the rest of the population.
Aggregate US consumer strength is misleadingly propped up by the top 40% of upper-income households, whose spending is buoyed by appreciating assets. This masks weaknesses among lower- and middle-income groups who are more affected by inflation, creating a narrowly driven economic expansion.
The economy's apparent strength is misleadingly concentrated. Growth hinges on AI-related capital expenditures and spending by the top 20% of households. This narrow base makes the economy fragile and vulnerable to a single shock in these specific areas, as there is little diversity to absorb a downturn.