Contrary to the growth narrative, the MSCI China index returned just 3.4% over the last decade with over 24% volatility. During the same period, the emerging market ex-China index delivered a higher return of 4.8% with significantly lower volatility (17.5%), highlighting structural headwinds in China for investors.
While international markets have more volatility and lower trust, their biggest advantage is inefficiency. Many basic services are underdeveloped, creating enormous 'low-hanging fruit' opportunities. Providing a great, reliable service in a market where few things work well can create immense and durable value.
As the U.S. tightens immigration for skilled workers, innovation may shift to countries with more welcoming policies. This macroeconomic trend presents a personal finance strategy: diversifying portfolios with international ETFs to capture growth in emerging tech hubs and hedge against a potential decline in U.S. competitiveness.
Active management is more viable in emerging markets than in the US. The largest EM ETF (EEM) has a high 0.72% expense ratio, the universe of stocks is twice as large as the US, and analyst coverage is sparse. This creates significant opportunities for skilled stock pickers to outperform passive strategies.
Contrary to her buy-and-hold reputation, Cathie Wood is actively managing risk by selling shares of top performers like Roku. She is reallocating that capital into out-of-favor Chinese tech companies like Alibaba and Baidu, signaling a tactical portfolio rotation despite geopolitical risks.
Many LPs focus solely on backing the 'best people.' However, a manager's chosen strategy and market (the 'neighborhood') is a more critical determinant of success. A brilliant manager playing a difficult game may underperform a good manager in a structurally advantaged area.
A powerful EM strategy involves identifying businesses with proven, powerful models from developed markets, like American Tower. Local EM investor bases may not be familiar with the model's potential, creating an opportunity to buy these companies at a displaced valuation before their predictable results drive multiple expansion.
Emerging vs. developed market outperformance typically runs in 7-10 year cycles. The current 14-year cycle of EM underperformance is historically long, suggesting markets are approaching a key inflection point driven by a weakening dollar, cheaper currencies, and accelerating earnings growth off a low base.
China's economic structure, which funnels state-backed capital into sectors like EVs, inherently creates overinvestment and excess capacity. This distorted cost of capital leads to hyper-competitive industries, making it difficult for even successful companies to generate predictable, growing returns for shareholders.
A 50% portfolio loss requires a 100% gain just to break even. The wealthy use low-volatility strategies to protect against massive downturns. By experiencing smaller losses (e.g., -10% vs. -40%), their portfolios recover faster and compound more effectively over the long term.
The secret to top-tier long-term results is not achieving the highest returns in any single year. Instead, it's about achieving average returns that can be sustained for an exceptionally long time. This "strategic mediocrity" allows compounding to work its magic, outperforming more volatile strategies over decades.