A Morgan Stanley survey of AI-adopting firms reveals a significant regional divergence. While globally these companies saw a 4% net job reduction over 12 months, US firms experienced a 2% net increase, driven by strong AI-related hiring that more than offset job cuts and attrition.
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Contrary to common fears, AI is projected to be a net job creator. Citing a World Economic Forum study, Naveen Chaddha highlights that while 92 million jobs will be displaced by automation, 170 million new roles will emerge, resulting in a net gain of 78 million jobs by 2030.
October saw the highest number of U.S. job cuts in two decades, with consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas explicitly citing AI adoption as a key driver. This data confirms that AI's impact on employment is an ongoing event, moving beyond speculation into measurable, significant job displacement.
Contrary to the narrative that AI is eliminating office jobs, the US has added 3 million white-collar positions since late 2022. Tech-adjacent roles like software developers and paralegals have also seen significant growth in numbers and real wages, indicating augmentation over replacement.
Contrary to the dominant job-loss narrative, a Vanguard study reveals that occupations highly exposed to AI are experiencing faster growth in both jobs and wages. This suggests AI is currently acting as a productivity tool that increases the value of labor rather than replacing it.
Contrary to fears of mass unemployment, research from the World Economic Forum suggests a net positive impact on jobs from AI. While automation may influence 15% of existing roles, AI is projected to help create 26% new job opportunities, indicating a workforce transformation and skill shift rather than a workforce reduction.
The initial wave of AI-driven efficiency isn't leading to widespread US layoffs. Instead, it's allowing American companies to bring repetitive tasks back in-house that were previously outsourced to countries like India and the Philippines. This suggests immediate job displacement will occur abroad.
The UK's high 8% net job loss in AI-adopting firms, double the global average, was primarily caused by a low level of new hires and a high rate of not backfilling open positions. This suggests broader labor market weakness amplified the impact of AI-driven role elimination.
Contrary to fears of mass unemployment, AI will create new industries and roles. While transitional unemployment will occur, the demand for more energy, AI-related regulation (e.g., government lawyers), and new leisure sectors will generate significant job growth, offsetting the displacement from automation.
Contrary to the narrative of AI-driven job destruction, roles considered highly vulnerable like software developers, paralegals, and radiologists have experienced substantial employment growth (7-20%) over the past three years. This data suggests AI is augmenting these professions rather than replacing them.
The labor market faces a dual threat. Weak demand, linked to tariffs and deglobalization, has already pushed job growth to zero. As AI adoption accelerates productivity, it could further suppress labor demand, potentially tipping the economy into a state of net job decline.
