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John Chen of Fika identifies a common VC mistake: rejecting a potential outlier investment due to unattractive valuation or terms. He argues the analysis of the opportunity, founder, and market should happen first, uncolored by the deal structure.
Citing a quote from legendary investor Jim Breyer, Miles Clements emphasizes that while the science of VC is valuation, the art is knowing when to ignore it. He shares that Accel missed investing in ServiceTitan, a $9B company, by rigidly adhering to valuation multiples for vertical SaaS, learning a costly lesson about the need for flexibility with generational founders.
An investor might correctly identify a company's flaw but still be wrong to pass, as great founders often fix those issues. This requires investors to have the humility to admit their ultimate conclusion was wrong, even if their initial analysis was correct, and be willing to re-engage with the startup.
Ben Black of Akkadian Ventures learned an expensive lesson by building a reputation for securing deals at a discount. This focus on price caused him to pass on exceptional companies he had access to simply because they weren't cheap enough. He now emphasizes that the quality of the asset is far more important than the discount you can negotiate.
For a venture capital fund, the costliest error isn't investing in a startup that fails (a sin of commission); it's passing on one that becomes a massive success (a sin of omission). This fear drives a high-volume sourcing strategy that prioritizes seeing every potential deal.
The absence of significant flaws or negative perspectives on a deal is a red flag, suggesting something was missed in diligence. True exceptionality is what carries a great investment, not a lack of risk. If everyone agrees it's a great deal, you're likely too late or wrong.
Obsessing over hitting a specific ownership target is a critical error for seed investors, leading them to miss generational companies. For truly exceptional founders, the right approach is to take whatever allocation is available, even if it's only 1-2%, rather than passing on the opportunity entirely. The access to greatness is what matters.
To compete with top-tier firms, other VCs are using aggressive deal structures as a weapon. This includes offering huge secondary sales or other founder-friendly terms that might not be in the company's best long-term interest, simply as a tactic to win the deal at all costs.
Andreessen reflects that, specifically in early-stage venture, his firm's decisions to pass on promising companies because the valuation was too high have consistently proven to be mistakes. For the best opportunities, the potential for massive upside makes the entry price a secondary concern.
For promising venture-stage companies, price sensitivity is a losing strategy. The truly exceptional opportunities attract significant interest, driving up valuations. According to Andreessen, the mistake of omission (passing on a future giant) far outweighs the mistake of overpaying slightly for a winner.
Legendary VCs like Fred Wilson advise to 'never pass on price.' A more nuanced take is to use a high valuation as a tool to gauge your own conviction. If doubling the price makes you hesitate, it reveals a lack of belief in the founder or market, which is the real reason to pass, not the price itself.