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As insurers exit New York due to the 'Scaffold Law,' remaining carriers dictate terms. This has caused a massive spike in deductibles for contractors, from around $25,000 in the past to as high as $750,000 per occurrence today, forcing firms to self-insure a huge portion of risk.
Rising premiums and deductibles are pushing people away from traditional insurance. This isn't an abandonment of healthcare, but a market response to a product that no longer provides adequate value, forcing a shift towards cash-pay and alternative models.
Despite having the nation's strictest liability standard (the 'Scaffold Law'), New York's construction industry has a higher fatality rate than the national average — 12 per 100,000 workers versus under 10. This data challenges the primary argument that the law enhances worker safety.
Insurers like Zurich now require AI-powered cameras on NYC job sites. The AI analyzes daily footage to identify dangerous movements and near-misses, not for live surveillance, but to provide data for correcting worker behavior, improving safety protocols, and reducing future incidents.
Construction projects have limited upside (e.g., 10-15% under budget) but massive downside (100-300%+ over budget). This skewed risk profile rationally incentivizes builders to stick with predictable, traditional methods rather than adopt new technologies that could lead to catastrophic overruns.
New York's absolute liability standard holds contractors 100% at fault for height-related injuries, regardless of worker negligence. This drives insurance to 10% of project costs, compared to just 2% elsewhere, as insurers flee the state or charge exorbitant premiums.
Insurers like AIG are seeking to exclude liabilities from AI use, such as deepfake scams or chatbot errors, from standard corporate policies. This forces businesses to either purchase expensive, capped add-ons or assume a significant new category of uninsurable risk.
The term 'Scaffold Law' is misleading. It's an absolute liability law for any height-related injury. A worker falling six inches from a secured ladder in a trench can trigger a claim where the contractor is 100% liable, drastically expanding its scope beyond high-rise work.
On public works projects in NYC, union wages are aligned with city and state prevailing wage laws. This means both union and non-union contractors must pay similar rates for public projects, countering the common narrative that high costs are primarily due to a 'union premium.'
AI and big data give insurers increasingly precise information on individual risk. As they approach perfect prediction, the concept of insurance as risk-pooling breaks down. If an insurer knows your house will burn down and charges an equivalent premium, you're no longer insured; you're just pre-paying for a disaster.
Following events like Hurricane Ian, the reinsurance market has repriced risk dramatically. Wagner explains that a risk historically priced to pay out 15-20% (implying a ~1-in-6 year event) is now priced to pay out over 50% (implying a 1-in-2 year event), creating a significant opportunity from the dislocation.