The argument that US AI regulation will cede leadership to China is flawed. China's AI progress often follows and copies US breakthroughs. By slowing the cutting edge in the US, we would also inherently slow the global pace of development, including in China.

Top AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic cannot unilaterally slow development, even with safety concerns. They fear that competitors or foreign adversaries would seize an insurmountable advantage, forcing them to seek government-led coordination to pace development safely.

The rush to regulate AI in the US, driven by panic, is strategically dangerous. Because AI development is a global race, if the US slows down with poorly designed rules while China accelerates, it effectively cedes the most important technological advantage of the century.

A US policy that slows down its own AI labs for safety is logically flawed and self-defeating unless it also effectively slows China's progress. Unilateral deceleration doesn't make the world safer; it simply cedes ground to a less safety-conscious competitor, increasing net risk.

The US faces a paradox: restricting frontier AI models for domestic safety could push global customers and allies towards unregulated foreign alternatives, like China's. This effort to control AI risks forfeiting the long-term strategic advantage of having US technology become the global standard.

Governments face a difficult choice with AI regulation. Those that impose strict safety measures risk falling behind nations with a laissez-faire approach. This creates a global race condition where the fear of being outcompeted may discourage necessary safeguards, even when the risks are known.

Despite safety concerns from their own employees, AI labs are trapped in a prisoner's dilemma. Any single company that pauses development risks bankruptcy, and any nation that does so risks falling behind competitors like China. This creates a race that can only be paced through a coordinated, international agreement.

The argument for slowing down AI development for safety is consistently met with one rebuttal from US tech companies: 'because of China.' This fear of falling behind in a geopolitical race is the primary driver of speed, overriding concerns about social destabilization and risk.

Nations face a game theory problem with AI. Slowing down for safety might cede an insurmountable advantage to competitors like China. This creates a high-stakes scenario where everyone pushes development to the absolute edge, hoping not to be the one who goes too far.