AI development follows the game theory of the nuclear arms race. If the U.S. slows down, it risks creating an asymmetric power dynamic where another nation like China could dominate. The goal is not to stop, but to achieve a global balance of power to ensure stability.

The argument that US AI regulation will cede leadership to China is flawed. China's AI progress often follows and copies US breakthroughs. By slowing the cutting edge in the US, we would also inherently slow the global pace of development, including in China.

The proposed data center moratorium, while intended to address safety, would create a strategic advantage for China and other nations if enacted unilaterally. An American slowdown without global agreement allows adversaries to catch up or surpass the US in AI, highlighting the prisoner's dilemma inherent in global AI regulation.

Stopping frontier AI development in the US without a verifiable, lockstep agreement with China does not increase safety. Instead, it creates a critical vulnerability, ceding dominance in cyber warfare and national security to an adversary who will continue to advance their own AI capabilities.

A US policy that slows down its own AI labs for safety is logically flawed and self-defeating unless it also effectively slows China's progress. Unilateral deceleration doesn't make the world safer; it simply cedes ground to a less safety-conscious competitor, increasing net risk.

Despite safety concerns from their own employees, AI labs are trapped in a prisoner's dilemma. Any single company that pauses development risks bankruptcy, and any nation that does so risks falling behind competitors like China. This creates a race that can only be paced through a coordinated, international agreement.

Pausing frontier AI development is an asymmetric strategic concession by the U.S. It halts progress in a key area of American advantage while giving China time to close its own critical gaps, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing. This could reset the geopolitical race on less favorable terms for the U.S.

The argument for slowing down AI development for safety is consistently met with one rebuttal from US tech companies: 'because of China.' This fear of falling behind in a geopolitical race is the primary driver of speed, overriding concerns about social destabilization and risk.

Nations face a game theory problem with AI. Slowing down for safety might cede an insurmountable advantage to competitors like China. This creates a high-stakes scenario where everyone pushes development to the absolute edge, hoping not to be the one who goes too far.