Contrary to popular belief, recent electricity price hikes are not yet driven by AI demand. Instead, they reflect a system that had already become less reliable due to the retirement of dispatchable coal power and increased dependence on intermittent renewables. The grid was already tight before the current demand wave hit.

While solar panels are inexpensive, the total system cost to achieve 100% reliable, 24/7 coverage is massive. These "hidden costs"—enormous battery storage, transmission build-outs, and grid complexity—make the final price of a full solution comparable to nuclear. This is why hyperscalers are actively pursuing nuclear for their data centers.

The push for massive overbuilding of solar/wind and gigantic battery farms is not an optimal grid strategy. It's a workaround that became popular only because of a pre-existing belief that building new, reliable baseload nuclear power was not an option.

The AI boom is not a universal positive for all energy sources. The need for a resilient, 24/7 power grid for AI data centers increases reliance on stable fossil fuels and battery storage to balance the intermittency of renewables. This dynamic is creating rising costs for pure-play solar and wind producers.

Poorer countries, unburdened by legacy fossil fuel infrastructure, have a unique advantage. They can bypass the dirty development path of wealthy nations and build their energy systems directly on cheaper, more efficient renewable technologies, potentially achieving energy security and economic growth faster.

Charts showing plummeting solar and wind production costs are misleading. These technologies often remain uncompetitive without significant government subsidies. Furthermore, the high cost of grid connection and ensuring system reliability means their true all-in expense is far greater than component costs suggest.

Despite the narrative of a transition to clean energy, renewables like wind and solar are supplementing, not replacing, traditional sources. Hydrocarbons' share of global energy has barely decreased, challenging the feasibility of net-zero goals and highlighting the sheer scale of global energy demand.

The cost of electricity has two components: making it and moving it. Generation ("making") costs are plummeting due to cheap solar. However, transmission ("moving") costs are rising from aging infrastructure. This indicates the biggest area for innovation is in distribution, not generation.

The economic model for renewable energy is the inverse of fossil fuels. While building wind or solar farms requires significant initial capital investment, their ongoing operational costs are minimal. This suggests that as Europe advances its green transition, its long-term energy cost competitiveness will dramatically improve.