Since leaving the gold standard in 1971, the default government response to any financial crisis has been to expand the money supply. This creates a persistent, long-term inflationary pressure that investors must factor into their strategies, particularly for fixed-income assets.
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Holding cash is a losing strategy because governments consistently respond to economic crises by printing money. This devalues savings, effectively forcing individuals to invest in assets like stocks simply to protect their purchasing power against inflation.
While innovations like AI are disinflationary in a vacuum, history shows this effect is consistently overwhelmed by expansionary monetary policy. For over 200 years, central banks have created 'man-made' inflation, meaning investors shouldn't count on technology alone to keep prices stable.
Governments with massive debt cannot afford to keep interest rates high, as refinancing becomes prohibitively expensive. This forces central banks to lower rates and print money, even when it fuels asset bubbles. The only exits are an unprecedented productivity boom (like from AI) or a devastating economic collapse.
Money printing is a politically expedient way to provide voters with the illusion of "free" services. It allows governments to spend without immediate, visible taxation, playing directly into the human tendency to prioritize short-term ease over long-term consequences.
The Fed's tool of raising interest rates is designed to slow bank lending. However, when inflation is driven by massive government deficits, this tool backfires. Higher rates increase the government's interest payments, forcing it to cover a larger deficit, which can lead to more money printing—the root cause of the inflation in the first place.
The original definition of inflation is an expansion of the money supply. By shifting the definition to mean rising prices (a consequence), governments can deflect blame for inflation onto businesses, unions, or foreign events, rather than their own money-printing policies.
The money printing that saved the economy in 2008 and 2020 is no longer as effective. Each crisis requires a larger 'dose' of stimulus for a smaller effect, creating an addiction to artificial liquidity that makes the entire financial system progressively more fragile.
In an era of "fiscal dominance," where massive national debt forces continuous money printing, holding excess cash in a savings account is not a safe haven but a "melting ice cube." The invisible tax of inflation guarantees that your purchasing power will consistently decrease over time.
Increasing the money supply doesn't lift all prices uniformly. It flows into specific sectors like finance or real estate first, creating asset bubbles and exacerbating wealth inequality, as those closest to the "money spigot" benefit before wages catch up.
In an environment dominated by government debt and money printing, holding cash is not a neutral act of saving; it's direct exposure to inflation. As the government devalues the currency to manage its interest payments, the purchasing power of cash diminishes. The priority must shift from simply saving to owning productive or scarce assets as a defense.
