Instead of a universal productivity boom, AI will eliminate repetitive white-collar jobs. This will shrink the consumer base, reducing overall demand and creating a powerful deflationary force, further entrenching a feudal economic structure with fewer 'lords' and more 'serfs.'

Widespread AI-driven job loss will reduce consumer spending. In response, businesses will be forced to cut costs further by accelerating AI adoption, which in turn leads to more job losses and even lower consumption, creating a vicious cycle.

According to analyst Samuel Hammond, AI's first wave will create a "software singularity" that feels more disinflationary than hyper-growth. While knowledge work is automated, real-world bottlenecks like infrastructure and regulation will limit GDP growth, with gains captured as consumer surplus.

Contrary to fears of mass unemployment, AI will create massive deflationary pressure, making goods and services cheaper. This will allow people to support their lifestyles by working fewer hours and retiring earlier, leading to a labor shortage as new AI-driven industries simultaneously create new jobs.

The narrative of AI destroying jobs misses a key point: AI allows companies to 'hire software for a dollar' for tasks that were never economical to assign to humans. This will unlock new services and expand the economy, creating demand in areas that previously didn't exist.

For current AI valuations to be realized, AI must deliver unprecedented efficiency, likely causing mass job displacement. This would disrupt the consumer economy that supports these companies, creating a fundamental contradiction where the condition for success undermines the system itself.

As AI gets exponentially smarter, it will solve major problems in power, chip efficiency, and labor, driving down costs across the economy. This extreme efficiency creates a powerful deflationary force, which is a greater long-term macroeconomic risk than the current AI investment bubble popping.

Capitalism values scarcity. AI's core disruption is not just automating tasks, but making human-like intellectual labor so abundant that its market value approaches zero. This breaks the fundamental economic loop of trading scarce labor for wages.

A rapid, broad adoption of AI could significantly boost productivity, leading to faster real GDP growth while simultaneously causing disinflation. This supply-side-driven scenario would present a puzzle for the Fed, potentially allowing it to lower interest rates to normalize policy even amid a strong economy.