Even if geopolitical conflicts resolve and growth recovers, inflation and energy prices are expected to remain elevated. This structural "regime shift" makes central bank policy more challenging and firmly places the emphasis on FX carry strategies, where investors profit from interest rate differentials between currencies.

While still profitable, FX carry trades have become more cyclical and less of a diversifier. They now exhibit a high correlation (~0.5 beta) with the S&P 500 and offer significantly lower yields (7% vs. 11-12% previously), increasing their risk profile in a potential market downturn.

As Japan's interest rates rise, the classic 'yen carry trade' is unwinding. Investors are now turning to the low-interest-rate Chinese renminbi (CNY) to borrow cheaply and invest in higher-yielding global assets, making the CNY a new cornerstone of this popular financial strategy.

The success of the current EM FX carry trade isn't driven by wide interest rate differentials, which are not historically high. Instead, the strategy is performing well because a resilient global growth environment is suppressing currency volatility, making it profitable to hold high-yielding currencies against low-yielders.

A world of persistent inflation and hawkish central banks creates a prime environment for carry trades, even with moderating growth. Within the G10, currencies of energy exporters with high yields, like the Australian Dollar and Norwegian Krone, are particularly attractive. Their carry advantage over the US dollar is at its highest level in nearly a decade.

Improving risk-adjusted carry in intra-EMU spreads is deceptive, driven by falling volatility, not higher returns. This creates a 'carry trap' where a small one-standard-deviation widening can erase one to two months of gains, highlighting the risk in currently crowded positions.

A strengthening US dollar doesn't negate the FX carry trade. The optimal strategy shifts to using low-yielding currencies like the Euro, Swiss Franc, or Yen as funders to buy high-yielders, insulating the trade from direct USD strength and capturing cross-currency differentials.

While broad emerging market currency indices appear to have stalled, this view is misleading. A deeper look reveals that the "carry theme"—investing in high-yielding currencies funded by low-yielding ones—has fully recovered and continues to perform very strongly, highlighting significant underlying dispersion and opportunity.

With FX volatility at multi-year lows, traditional volatility-selling strategies are not recommended. Instead, the optimal approach is to use options to exploit specific currency pairs with exceptionally high carry-to-volatility ratios, such as Sterling/Swiss, for superior alpha generation.