Success can arise from luck, high volume, innate advantages, or changing the odds. Many famous stories, like Marilyn Monroe's discovery, are based on luck. Attempting to replicate such a path is an unreliable strategy; focus on controllable systems you can influence instead.
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In domains with extreme outcomes (music, startups), success is heavily influenced by luck, making it difficult to replicate. A more effective strategy is to study the common failure modes of the vast majority of talented people who tried. This provides a clearer roadmap of what to avoid than trying to copy a lucky winner.
Successful individuals and companies don't experience more fortunate events. Instead, they excel at capitalizing on positive serendipity and navigating negative shocks. The narrative of "luck" is often a psychological crutch for those unwilling to take responsibility for their reactions to life's inherent volatility.
Housel cites his book's disproportionate, unexplainable success in India and Brazil as evidence that most viral phenomena are attributable to luck. This serves as a lesson in humility for creators and businesses, suggesting that trying to engineer or replicate massive viral success is often a futile effort.
A good outcome does not automatically validate the decision-making process, as luck plays a significant role. Howard Marks stresses the importance of intellectual humility in recognizing that a successful result could have stemmed from wrong reasons or randomness, a crucial distinction for repeatable success.
When evaluating others' success, ask if their strategy would work for most people who adopt it, or if it relied heavily on luck. If a strategy isn't reproducible and leaves many casualties behind, it's not a model to be learned from, regardless of the impressive outlier outcome.
The phrase "I make my own luck" is a misnomer. Life outcomes are a function of two things: luck (uncontrollable) and decision quality. While you can't control luck, you can consistently make better decisions that increase the probability of favorable outcomes over time.
Success stories like Notion's cannot be replicated because they are a direct result of their founder's unique personality and 'narrative violations.' Great companies succeed based on the specific, unrepeatable idiosyncrasies of their founders. The key is to embrace these unique traits, not follow a generic playbook.
It's a mistake to copy the current habits of highly successful people. Their present behavior is a result of their success. Instead, model the hustling, risk-taking strategies they employed when they were in a similar position to you.
Iconic campaigns like the Dulux dog were accidental. Marketing success isn't about perfectly engineered plans, but about increasing exposure to "upside good fortune" and having the skill to recognize and double down on a lucky break when it happens.
Advice from successful individuals often reflects their current position of luxury and flexibility, not the grueling, unbalanced methods they used to get there. To achieve similar success, emulate what your heroes did when they were at your stage, not the balanced approach they can afford now.