The unpredictable nature of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) policy makes fixed launch plans obsolete. Companies must now create multiple, dynamic launch sequences tied to specific policy "signposts." This requires a shift towards continuous scenario planning and risk mitigation to remain prepared for various potential outcomes.

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Initial panic over the MFN drug pricing scheme was based on pegging U.S. prices to the lowest in the industrialized world. The actual proposal is far less drastic, targeting the second-lowest price among a small cohort of high-income nations (G7 plus Denmark and Switzerland), a significantly less onerous benchmark.

The traditional pharma leadership model focused on minimizing risk through tight, linear control is no longer competitive. The future requires a shift to agile coordination, allowing leaders to reallocate priorities quickly in a data-driven, connected way.

While MFN pricing is seen as a major threat, it could have an unexpected positive effect. It would force companies launching new drugs to establish a GDP-adjusted global price from the start, ending the current system where the U.S. effectively subsidizes lower prices elsewhere.

The Most Favored Nation (MFN) policy forces a difficult choice: launch early in Europe and risk a lower US reference price, or delay the European launch to protect US revenue, slowing patient access. This dilemma upends traditional global launch strategies, creating commercial, ethical, and operational problems for pharma companies.

The increasing volume of new therapies requires pharma companies to stop treating each launch as a unique event. Instead, they must develop a scalable, repeatable, and excellent launch capability to handle the future pipeline efficiently and consistently.

Applying traditional, broad primary care launch strategies to highly targeted specialty therapies is a major risk. The complexity of stakeholders and decision-making in areas like oncology means old playbooks can make a company's efforts completely irrelevant.

Amidst growing uncertainty at the US FDA, biotech companies are using a specific de-risking strategy: conducting early-stage clinical trials in countries like South Korea and Australia. This global approach is not just about cost but a deliberate move to get fast, reliable early clinical data to offset domestic regulatory instability and gain a strategic advantage.

The Most Favored Nation (MFN) policy was strategically designed to be disruptive. The aim was less about implementing a specific pricing framework and more about forcing the pharmaceutical industry to change its behavior, re-evaluate global strategies, and engage in new types of negotiations, which has already proven effective.

MFN's pressure on global pricing will change how innovation is valued. Truly disruptive drugs may command higher prices ex-US, while incremental "me-too" drugs in crowded classes will not. This will force pharma companies to shift R&D investment away from iterative improvements and toward therapies with radical treatment-disrupting potential.

Move beyond ad-hoc pre-launch activities by implementing "impression modeling." This systematic approach quantifies message frequency to key targets (HCPs, patients) and uses a feedback loop to monitor attitudinal changes, ensuring the market is properly prepared before the product goes live.

Pharma Must Adopt Dynamic Scenario Planning to Navigate MFN Policy Uncertainty | RiffOn