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Many dot-com bubble predictions for frictionless commerce failed because the technology wasn't capable. Today's powerful AI agents represent the maturation of that tech, finally enabling the seamless disintermediation that was envisioned decades ago.
The internet was designed for human interaction, actively discouraging bots. The next evolution will reverse this, with AI agents becoming the primary users. This requires re-architecting everything from user interfaces to business models, with crypto likely serving as the native payment rail for these autonomous agents.
Frame AI as a fundamental productivity shift, like the personal computer, that will achieve total market saturation. It's not a speculative bubble but a new, permanent layer of the economy that will be integrated into every business, even a local taco truck.
Unlike the dot-com bubble driven by fleeting startups, the AI boom is a sustainable "megatrend." It's led by established giants like Microsoft and Google, developing on a compressed 5-7 year timeline (vs. 15 years for the internet), and operating at a scale 1000x larger, suggesting longevity over a sudden collapse.
Cresta's CEO argues that while the internet's evolution from 1995-2001 was somewhat foreseeable, the advancements in AI since 2019 would have been unimaginable even to the experts who wrote the foundational papers. This highlights the unprecedented nature of the current technological shift.
Middlemen like retailers exist because of information asymmetry. Personal AI agents, with deep knowledge of individual needs, will aggregate demand and purchase goods directly from producers like farmers and manufacturers. This will eliminate the need for advertisers and retailers and enable hyper-efficient supply chains.
Unlike the dot-com bubble's revenue-less companies, the current AI wave involves companies that can deploy capital and immediately generate revenue. This indicates real value creation and suggests we are in an early, sustainable phase of the cycle, not a speculative peak.
The current AI market resembles the early, productive phase of the dot-com era, not its speculative peak. Key indicators like reasonable big tech valuations and low leverage suggest a foundational technology shift is underway, contrasting with the market frenzy of the late 90s.
Unlike Web3, which required building an entirely new ecosystem, AI's power lies in its seamless integration into existing workflows. Because there's no friction to adoption and the cost of creation is dropping to zero, its societal impact will be faster and more widespread than previous technological shifts.
Unlike the dot-com era where valuations far outpaced a small, slow user base, the current AI shift is driven by products with immediate, massive adoption and revenue. The technology is delivering value today, not just promising it for the future, which fundamentally changes the financial dynamics.
The future of AI is not just humans talking to AI, but a world where personal agents communicate directly with business agents (e.g., your agent negotiating a loan with a bank's agent). This will necessitate new communication protocols and guardrails, creating a societal transformation comparable to the early internet.