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Poppy sold to Pepsi for $2.2 billion: $1.9 billion upfront and $300 million in earnout. Pepsi paid only $12 million of the earnout. Sean Frank says founders should expect a quarter or zero because the acquirer controls budget and distribution after closing.
Successful founders prioritize cash upfront over potentially larger payouts from complex earnouts. Earnouts often underperform because founders lose control of the business's future performance, leading to dissatisfaction despite a higher on-paper valuation.
An earn-out is a tool for alignment, not just a financial hedge. If a target company is on track to miss its earn-out targets, a savvy acquirer will proactively renegotiate the terms. The long-term value of retaining and motivating the key team members outweighs the short-term financial gain of a missed payment.
Founders should be wary of earn-out clauses. Acquirers can impose layers of pointless processes and overhead costs, tanking the profitability of a successful business and making it impossible for the founder to ever receive their earn-out payment.
Zayo rarely used earnouts because they are fundamentally incompatible with a rapid integration strategy. An earnout requires tracking the performance of the old entity, preventing the acquirer from fully 'mashing' it into their platform to achieve synergies. It also keeps key talent focused on old metrics rather than contributing to the new, combined organization's success.
While earn-outs in acquisitions are notoriously difficult, they appeal to the core founder mentality of believing they will be the exception to the rule. This inherent, often necessary, optimism makes them embrace structures that others might see as overly complex or risky.
Go beyond standard performance-based earn-outs by structuring payments with 'kickers' that reward sellers for specific de-risking actions. For example, if there's high customer concentration, offer an additional payment for diversifying revenue away from the main client, aligning them with the buyer's risk mitigation goals.
In acquisitions where a founder is key to the business, a significant portion of the payout is structured not on performance (EBITDA), but on tenure. This creates an 'onerous employment lockup,' legally binding the founder to stay for a set period to ensure business continuity.
In an earn-out scenario, acquiring another company that competes for the same geography or clients can make a seller's targets unachievable. This is a major breach of trust unless the possibility was discussed upfront. Serial acquirers must plan for this and communicate their M&A strategy transparently.
While it seems counterintuitive, offering all cash instead of a mix of stock and earnouts can be cheaper for the buyer. Sellers heavily discount the value of stock and view earnouts as having little to no value. A clean, all-cash offer provides certainty, which is highly attractive to sellers and can lead them to accept a lower headline price than a complex, messy deal structure.
Despite a multi-million dollar payout, Thibault regrets the sale. Hitting the earn-out targets meant they grew the business to $8M in annual revenue, only to receive a total of $8M for it, effectively a 1x multiple on their newly achieved ARR.