Pilecki argues that classic value investing fails by ignoring momentum. He waits for a stock's chart to form a base before buying and lets winners run past initial price targets if momentum is strong. This avoids buying "falling knives" and cutting winners short.

Related Insights

Counter to conventional value investing wisdom, a low Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is often a "value trap" that exists for a valid, negative reason. A high P/E, conversely, is a more reliable indicator that a stock may be overvalued and worth selling. This suggests avoiding cheap stocks is more important than simply finding them.

Marks frames contrarian investing not as simple opposition, but as using the market's excessive force (optimism or pessimism) against itself. This mental model involves letting the market's momentum create opportunities, like selling into euphoric buying, rather than just betting against the crowd.

Intrinsic value shouldn't be confused with a 12-month price target. It is a calculation of a company's long-term worth, akin to a private market or takeover value. This stable anchor allows investors to assess the "margin of safety" at any given market price and ignore daily noise, rather than chasing a specific trading level.

Wagner's strategy shifted from buying statistically cheap companies to requiring a clear catalyst for value realization. He found that without a catalyst, even correctly underwritten cheap stocks would continue to decline due to factors like technological disruption, making the old "cigar butt" approach obsolete.

Beyond "buy and hold," Pilecki highlights two overlooked Buffett insights. First, high portfolio turnover can yield massive returns on a small capital base. Second, Buffett's greatest self-critique was being insufficiently optimistic and not taking enough risk, urging a "permabull" mindset.

Anchoring valuation on a company's typical price-to-sales ratio helps identify buying opportunities when margins are temporarily depressed. This avoids the pitfalls of methods like the Magic Formula, which can mistakenly favor companies at their cyclical earnings peaks, leading to underperformance.

The best investment deals are not deeply discounted, low-quality items like "unsellable teal crocodile loafers." Instead, they are the rare, high-quality assets that seldom come on sale. For investors, the key is to have the conviction and preparedness to act decisively when these infrequent opportunities appear.

Wilson advised against trying to perfectly time the peak of a successful company's dominance. Competition will eventually emerge, but anticipating its impact is futile and often leads to premature selling. He believed you can make a fortune by riding a winner for years before the problems become acute.

Rather than passively holding a stock, the "buy and optimize" strategy involves actively managing its weighting in a portfolio. As a stock becomes more expensive relative to its intrinsic value, the position is trimmed, and when it gets cheaper, it is increased, creating an additional layer of return.

The era of constant central bank intervention has rendered traditional value investing irrelevant. Market movements are now dictated by liquidity and stimulus flows, not by fundamental analysis of a company's intrinsic value. Investors must now track the 'liquidity impulse' to succeed.