The highly successful NZ Superfund derives its value from a few large, high-conviction strategic bets where it has a unique edge, rejecting the conventional wisdom of broad global diversification for large asset owners.
The most successful venture investors share two key traits: they originate investments from a first-principles or contrarian standpoint, and they possess the conviction to concentrate significant capital into their winning portfolio companies as they emerge.
Successful concentration isn't just about doubling down on winners. It's equally about avoiding the dispersion of capital and attention. This means resisting the industry bias to automatically do a pro-rata investment in a company just because another VC offered a higher valuation.
Top growth investors deliberately allocate more of their diligence effort to understanding and underwriting massive upside scenarios (10x+ returns) rather than concentrating on mitigating potential downside. The power-law nature of venture returns makes this a rational focus for generating exceptional performance.
The firm's "Capital System" combines top ideas from various analysts and portfolio managers into a single fund. This structure deliberately avoids exposure to any single manager's low-conviction holdings, creating what is effectively a "best ideas" portfolio.
Contrary to typical risk-off strategies, ARK Invest manages risk by concentrating its portfolio into its highest-conviction names during market downturns. Conversely, during bull markets, as opportunities like IPOs increase, the firm diversifies its holdings to capture broader upside.
Many commodity funds make bold macro predictions (e.g., on inflation) but take timid, diversified equity positions. A superior strategy is the reverse: maintain a neutral macro view while making concentrated, 'bold' bets on specific companies with powerful operational catalysts that generate alpha regardless of the macro environment.
Thrive Capital rejects traditional VC diversification, instead making massive, concentrated bets on what it deems the best-in-class assets, like its $2 billion investment in Stripe. This 'buy the best' approach, focusing on significant ownership in top-tier companies, has been central to its outsized returns.
To overcome LP objections to layered fees, fund-of-funds must deliver outsized returns. This is achieved not by diversification, but through extreme concentration. By investing 90% of capital into just 10-13 high-potential "risk-on" funds, the model is structured to outperform, making the additional management fee and carry worthwhile for the end investor.
The key question for institutions isn't "how do we access the best managers?" but "what is unique about us that facilitates privileged access to assets or managers?" This shifts the focus from picking to leveraging inherent advantages.
Temasek's partnership philosophy prioritizes acquiring new capabilities over simple risk diversification. The fund actively seeks partners who possess specific skills it lacks for certain investment opportunities. This approach treats partnerships as a strategic tool for enhancing internal expertise rather than a purely financial mechanism for spreading risk.