Permira's analysis suggests AI can replicate software features, eroding the value of high switching costs and recurring revenue. The new moat is whether a company owns critical data or is deeply embedded in workflows.

Many SaaS companies claim their "system of record" status is a moat. However, this argument is increasingly flimsy. Customer data is not owned by the SaaS provider, and modern AI tools can easily migrate vast amounts of data, significantly reducing the friction and cost of switching vendors.

The rise of agentic coding is creating a "SaaSpocalypse." These agents can migrate data, learn different workflows, and handle integrations, which undermines the core moats of SaaS companies: data switching costs, workflow lock-in, and integration complexity. This makes the high gross margins of SaaS businesses a prime target for disruption.

Boris Cherny predicts AI will weaken traditional business moats. Switching costs decrease as AI can port systems, and process power is less defensible as AI can replicate complex workflows. However, foundational moats like network effects and scale economies will remain strong or grow in importance.

Moats like migration pain, proprietary data, and UI lock-in are weakening. AI agents are flexible with interfaces and can easily replicate code and migrate data, forcing companies to find new, more distinct sources of value beyond simply 'owning' the customer.

The primary moat for many SaaS companies was the complexity and high cost of migrating away from their product. AI agents can now automate this process, eroding that advantage, increasing competition, and giving buyers significant leverage to renegotiate contracts.

The true threat to SaaS isn't just cheap software creation, but AI agents that automate data migration between platforms. This destroys the lock-in effect of proprietary data models, turning SaaS into a low-multiple utility business where switching costs approach zero.

Software's main competitive advantage isn't code, but its deep integration into customer data and workflows, creating high switching costs. AI threatens this moat by automating those integrated tasks, reducing customer stickiness and pricing power.

AI coding agents will make migrating between complex enterprise systems like SAP and Oracle dramatically easier and cheaper. This erodes the moat of high switching costs, forcing incumbents to compete on product value rather than customer lock-in, where they once held customers as "hostages."