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By mandating Social Security funds be invested in low-yield US Treasury bonds instead of the S&P 500, a 1982 policy change prevented the trust fund from accumulating an additional $37 trillion. This single decision prevented the bottom 50% of Americans from owning a stake in the country's economic growth.
The modern mantra of "stocks for the long run" is a historical anomaly. For most of U.S. history, including the entire 19th century and up until WWII, bonds were the superior or equivalent long-term investment compared to stocks.
Instead of officially defaulting on unpayable promises like Social Security, governments opt for massive inflation. This devalues the currency so severely that while citizens receive their checks, the money's purchasing power is destroyed, rendering the benefits worthless without an explicit, unpopular cut.
People believe their Social Security contributions are saved in a trust fund. In reality, the money is spent by the Treasury, which places an IOU back into the fund. The system is unfunded, unlike a 401k, creating a perception of security while it's actually a massive government liability.
Social Security is framed not just as a successful anti-poverty program, but as a system that annually moves over a trillion dollars from the younger, less wealthy working-age population to the most affluent generation in history, who are often asset-rich.
Larry Fink's proposal to invest the Social Security fund in stocks highlights a broader truth: in an inflationary economy, the 'safe' strategy of avoiding market risk guarantees a loss of purchasing power. The fear of investing is ultimately more dangerous than the calculated risk of investing for long-term growth.
U.S. economic policy is no longer aimed at broad prosperity but at ensuring the S&P 500 index continues to rise. This singular focus creates negative side effects, like suffering for the majority of the population who rely on wage growth rather than asset appreciation.
Contrary to their "safe haven" reputation, U.S. bonds experienced a prolonged period of poor performance. From the early 1910s to 1981, rising inflation and interest rates meant bondholders lost purchasing power, challenging the assumption of bonds as a stable, long-term store of value.
The true potential of government-seeded investment accounts for children is not just encouraging saving, but as a long-term fiscal strategy. It could create a self-funded retirement system for future generations, allowing for the eventual replacement of unsustainable entitlement programs like Social Security.
Since the 1980s, the private sector moved from unstable pensions to 401(k)s, giving workers direct ownership of equities and building middle-class wealth. In contrast, 90% of government workers remained on pension plans, which are fundamentally miscalibrated and create massive, unsustainable liabilities for states.
The perception of government bonds as 'safe' is challenged by history. In the 35 years following WWII (1945-1980), a period of inflation and financial repression, investors in most global government bond markets saw the real value of their capital decimated.