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Soaring home prices are a demographic issue, not just an economic one. By delaying homeownership—a traditional precursor to starting a family—high housing costs function as a form of birth control, with every 10% price increase correlating to a 1% drop in birth rates.
Scott Galloway connects societal issues like declining birth rates to tax policy. He notes that over 40 years, seniors grew 72% wealthier while those under 40 became 24% less wealthy. This economic precarity disincentivizes family formation.
The main reason for low US fertility is the decline in marriage rates among reproductive-age women, not the use of birth control. Even if all married women had children at the high rate of the Amish, the national fertility rate would still only be around three because so few women are married in their childbearing years.
We have had housing technology for 10,000 years, yet have made it artificially scarce through regulation. This engineered scarcity prevents young people from starting families, directly causing the crash in birth rates that poses an existential threat to Western civilization.
While Spain's economy benefits from immigration, its housing supply has failed to keep up. With 140,000 new households formed annually but only 80,000 homes built, the resulting shortage disproportionately affects young people, delaying family formation and depressing the fertility rate to one of the world's lowest.
The falling birth rates in many Western nations are a direct consequence of economic pressures. Young people are postponing or forgoing having children because the high cost of housing and living makes it financially impossible to start a family, a phenomenon exemplified by adults in their 30s still living with their parents.
Unaffordable housing is the root cause of many social problems. It statistically correlates with lower marriage and birth rates, increased alcohol abuse, and declining mental health, as it prevents young people from achieving a key milestone of adulthood.
Mandated child seats increase the cost of having more children by requiring larger, more expensive vehicles. This economic friction, while saving lives, may also act as a deterrent to larger families, potentially lowering the overall birth rate.
Analyst Michael Howell's research shows a strong correlation between rising gold prices (a proxy for monetary inflation) and falling fertility rates in advanced economies. The mechanism is inflation driving up housing costs, which forces families to delay or forgo having children, leading to demographic decline.
The number of 25-34 year olds living with parents has doubled from 10% to 20% since 2000. This represents a significant "housing deficit" of unformed households, which will drive strong demand for new housing as soon as affordability improves.
Many societal problems, including fertility declines, drug crises, and political decay, are downstream consequences of unaffordable housing. A lack of homeownership prevents people from feeling invested in their communities, leading to broader social breakdown.