Regardless of the outcome, the US used the Iran conflict to gain critical intelligence. It confirmed Iranian missile capabilities, China and Russia's unwillingness to directly intervene for an ally, and that Gulf countries would align closer with the US under pressure.
Despite de-dollarization narratives, the market has overwhelmingly chosen USD-backed stablecoins. As global citizens opt to hold these digital dollars over their local currencies, monetary sovereignty is effectively transferred from their home governments to the US, strengthening dollar hegemony.
The market is focused on immediate energy disruption, but the overlooked consequence is a future food crisis. Shipping disruptions during planting season blocked fertilizers and other inputs, setting up a potential food supply cascade in late 2026 or early 2027.
The Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) market for aviation is an overlooked but vital industry. With the Gulf Region being a key global hub, any disruption there creates a cascading supply chain failure that impacts numerous other industries, representing a significant hidden risk and investment opportunity.
Nations buy gold to escape the dollar system, but this creates a paradox. During a crisis, they need dollars to operate on the global stage. To get them, they are forced to sell their gold reserves, as seen during the Iran conflict, ultimately reinforcing the dollar's dominance when it matters most.
A key struggle for investors is separating how they wish the world worked (conviction) from how it actually works (reality). Growing a portfolio may sometimes require investing in trends or outcomes that are personally disagreeable. Fiduciary duty requires an objective analysis of the world as it is, not as one wants it to be.
The US is abandoning the post-WWII multilateral "rules-based order" for a bilateral "America First" approach. This isn't just a policy change; it signals a fundamental transition from a republic managing alliances to an empire enforcing its will, regardless of which party is in power.
When the US raises rates to fight domestic inflation, it forces down the value of foreign-held Treasury bonds. This acts as a de facto early withdrawal penalty on other nations' dollar reserves, allowing the US to exert financial pressure under the guise of domestic policy.
Global commodity markets are fracturing. The long-held "law of one price," where a commodity had a single global price, is being replaced by divergent regional pricing. National security concerns, tariffs, and supply chain issues now mean the same commodity can have different prices in the US, China, and Europe.
Contrary to popular belief, the US dollar won't die by being inflated to zero. Its end will come from becoming too strong, triggering a global dollar funding crisis that breaks the international financial system. The dollar system is designed to create problems when it gets too high or too low.
The global financial system forces other countries into a "dual carry trade" with both their local currency and the US dollar. Because currencies are relative, one of these trades is always working against them. This is a structural flaw the US can exploit to exert pressure, a problem the US itself doesn't face.