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  1. The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified
  2. 517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)
517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified · Sep 14, 2026

Fika Ventures' John Chen on finding overlooked founders, AI's fear and greed, the rise of kingmakers, and if seed is the new sucker round.

VCs Gain an Edge By Maintaining Distance From SF's "Echo Chamber"

Fika Ventures strategically located in LA to tap emerging B2B talent while being far from SF's groupthink. This fosters independent thought, while weekly trips to the Bay Area ensure they remain "calibrated" to market standards, creating a powerful geographic arbitrage.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago

VC Alpha Can Be Found by Backing "Outsider" Founders Lacking SF-Legible Pedigrees

Fika Ventures deliberately seeks founders who lack credentials like YC or Stanford, which are often prerequisites for SF-based VCs. These overlooked "outsiders," if truly exceptional, represent an undervalued source of investment opportunities, as proven by their portfolio company Evo, whose founder came from New Zealand.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago

A Founder's Relentless WeWork Schedule Is a Powerful, Non-Obvious Investment Signal

Fika's investment in Ajax originated from a referral by another portfolio founder in the same WeWork. The recommender knew nothing about Ajax's business but was so impressed by their team's extreme work ethic—arriving earlier and staying later than anyone—that it served as a primary signal of quality.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago

VC Firm Emergence Succeeded by Being "Aggressively Non-Heat-Seeking"

VC firm Emergence built its success on an "aggressively non-heat-seeking" philosophy. Instead of chasing hype, the key question is "What do we see in this company that others don't?" This contrarian approach led to successful investments in overlooked companies like Zoom, then considered a late mover.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago

Effective VC Partnerships Require All Partners to Contribute to a "Single Conversation"

A VC firm's partnership is strongest when all partners can engage in a single, unified investment conversation. Firms with siloed specialists—like separate biotech, consumer, and enterprise partners—risk losing synergy, as there's little point in a partnership if members can't meaningfully debate deals together.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago

AI Native Services Win by Targeting Low-Bar Industries, Not Premium Segments

AI Native Services succeed by targeting markets with a low quality bar and room for a 10x better experience, like fund administration. They often fail in premium, high-stakes segments like litigation where customers pay for brand and personal accountability, not just speed or cost.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago

AI Co-pilots Will Thrive by Servicing Complex Machines in the Physical World

The death of AI co-pilots is overstated. They have a massive opportunity in "bits meets atoms" industries like manufacturing. While AI can build machines, servicing them involves hyper-local, multivariate problems best solved by a human augmented with a co-pilot, such as AI-powered safety goggles for diagnostics.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago

Extreme Pre-Seed Valuations Raise the Question: Is It the New "Sucker Round"?

With pre-seed rounds reaching $10-15 million, the stage risks becoming the new "sucker round"—a term once reserved for Series B. The high valuations may not adequately compensate investors for the extreme risk they are taking, forcing a difficult calculation of whether an opportunity is truly contrarian.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago

The Best Product Still Beats "Kingmaker" VCs in High-Stakes Markets

The "kingmaker" phenomenon, where a top VC's massive investment anoints a winner, can be overcome. In high-stakes categories where customers conduct extensive bake-offs with 10+ vendors, the best product wins. This customer diligence neutralizes capital as the primary competitive weapon.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago

Fear and Greed Are Driving Customers to Buy Multiple, Overlapping AI Tools

Companies are currently buying multiple duplicative AI solutions due to a mix of fear and greed. The fear is missing out on a transformative wave. The greed is the hope that one of these tools will unlock a new, game-changing business lever. This irrational spending phase is unlikely to last.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago

97% Pilot Conversion and 0% Churn Are Elite Indicators of Early AI Product-Market Fit

Traditional SaaS metrics are less relevant for early AI startups. Instead, look for exceptional leading indicators of product-market fit. For example, AI legal startup Ajax demonstrated a 97% pilot-to-paid conversion rate and 0% logo churn, signaling immense, undeniable customer value.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago

Treating "Founder" as a Career Path Dilutes the High-Stakes Founder-Investor Pact

When being a founder becomes a default career path, venture capital can feel more like a "research grant" than a high-stakes investment. This erodes the sacred pact where both founder and investor have immense skin in the game. This shift is driven by mega-funds that can afford more "call option" like bets.

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen) thumbnail

517. Fear and Greed in AI, The Rise of Kingmakers, and Is Seed the Sucker Round? (John Chen)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·20 days ago