Rather than engaging in destructive price wars, Visa and Mastercard prioritize maintaining high industry margins. Their primary competitive focus is on converting the world's $11 trillion in cash and check transactions to digital, effectively expanding the entire market for both players instead of fighting over existing share.
Looking toward 2030, Visa is preparing for "agentic e-commerce," where AI agents execute purchases autonomously. By developing secure, programmable digital credentials for machines, Visa is positioning its network to be the underlying trust layer, ensuring it remains the toll collector even when humans are not directly involved in transactions.
In 1958, Bank of America jumpstarted what became the Visa network by mailing 60,000 live credit cards to Fresno residents. This aggressive, and now illegal, tactic instantly created a user base and merchant incentive, solving the classic two-sided market problem that plagues new payment platforms.
Major tech and fintech players, including Apple, Google, and Stripe, have opted to integrate with Visa's network rather than build a competing one from scratch. This dynamic turns potential disruptors into partners, reinforcing Visa's deep moat and demonstrating the prohibitively high cost of replicating its global infrastructure.
Contessaria's strategy prioritizes businesses with predictable 10-year outlooks and low capital intensity. He avoids tech giants like Meta and Alphabet, which require massive, ongoing reinvestment in R&D and infrastructure, making their long-term free cash flow less durable and predictable than Visa's.
Cross-border transactions are a critical, high-margin driver for Visa. Due to increased complexity and currency exchange, these international payments carry fees roughly three times higher than domestic ones. Consequently, they contribute over a third of Visa's revenue despite representing only a tenth of its total payment volume.
To counter the rise of free, government-backed account-to-account (A2A) payment systems, Visa is building its own A2A network. It then monetizes these flows by adding value-added services like real-time fraud detection and global interoperability—features that basic, local bank-transfer systems cannot match, turning a commodity threat into a premium offering.
Amex's "closed-loop" model intentionally targets affluent consumers, using high merchant fees to fund premium rewards. This creates a virtuous cycle, positioning Amex as a status symbol for high spenders. This contrasts sharply with Visa's "open-loop" system, which scales as a low-cost, high-volume utility for the global mass market.
Visa's moat is threatened less by traditional competitors and more by sovereign payment systems. Government-backed networks like India's UPI and Brazil's Pix facilitate direct bank-to-bank transfers, bypassing Visa's rails. In China, state control and super apps like Alipay have effectively blocked Visa from the market.