High U.S. tariffs on China serve a strategic purpose beyond economics: to maintain a "structural separation" between China and key American allies like Europe and Japan. This core objective makes a large-scale tariff reset highly unlikely, regardless of summit outcomes.
A "chips for rare earths" equilibrium underpins the U.S.-China relationship. Any concession by China on rare earth controls would likely require reciprocal U.S. flexibility on advanced semiconductor exports. This strategic deadlock disincentivizes escalation from either side on the technology front.
Investors should prioritize the summit's diplomatic tone over tangible trade deals. Language indicating continued negotiation and future cooperation is the most critical signal for how the U.S.-China relationship will evolve, impacting long-term market sentiment more than minor concessions.