A simple 20-second video of cows outperformed half of professionally made, high-budget ads tested by System 1. This illustrates the widespread ineffectiveness of 'dull' advertising and provides a starkly simple creative benchmark for agencies: at minimum, you must 'beat the cow'.
Sociologist Murray S. Davis found that enduring theories persist not because they're true, but because they are 'interesting.' Their power comes from fundamentally challenging and denying a strongly held belief. This is the essence of strategic surprise, which is far more than a simple narrative twist.
The 'Reward Prediction Error' concept shows our brains release dopamine based on the gap between what we expect and what we get, not the experience itself. This reframes marketing's job as setting an expectation and the brand experience's job as strategically exceeding it.
Ryanair strategically communicates a poor service experience via its advertising and social media, managing customer expectations downwards. When the actual flight is merely adequate (e.g., on time), it feels like a positive surprise, demonstrating a masterful, if counterintuitive, use of Reward Prediction Error.
Marketers must distinguish between two types of surprise. 'Short O' surprises are fleeting narrative twists that grab attention. 'Long O' surprises fundamentally reframe the brand or category (e.g., HSBC's 'Banking the Homeless' program), creating a lasting shift in perception and consideration.
Contrary to expectations, Aldi's ability to consistently surprise consumers (e.g., matching Waitrose mince pies at half the price) is rooted in operational rigor and long-term planning, not creative spontaneity. This highlights that strategic surprise is an engineered, cross-functional effort requiring immense discipline.
The effect of a surprise diminishes with repetition, as it becomes the new expectation—like a large diamond seeming smaller over time. Challenger brands built on surprise, like Aldi or Liquid Death, must create a system to consistently generate *new* surprises to maintain their edge and avoid fading away.
The 'Most Advanced Yet Acceptable' (MAYA) principle dictates that successful innovation requires familiarity. Google Glass failed by being too futuristic. Ray-Ban Metas succeed by being 80% familiar (a classic Ray-Ban design) and only 20% surprising (embedded tech), hitting the sweet spot of consumer acceptance.
Analysis of advertising data shows campaigns with the best long-term results feature a surprise level of around 15%. Going too far beyond this creates shock without resolving into happiness. The goal isn't just to surprise, but to use a calibrated amount of it to make the audience feel good.