Businesses running complex operations on massive spreadsheets are ideal for digital transformation. A large, slow spreadsheet indicates that the company has already defined its processes and data structures. This makes it ripe for conversion into a custom web application that can offer a 10x speed improvement and unlock new automation opportunities.
The current trend of replacing domestic engineering talent with AI parallels the offshoring wave of the early 2000s. Just as offshoring led to unforeseen communication and quality issues that brought clients back, using AI for complex projects creates similar problems, ultimately forcing companies to seek senior human engineers for rigor and experience.
AI's current strength lies in enhancing efficiency by handling tasks like summarization and data categorization. It is not suited for big-picture thinking or complex processes. The goal should be to make existing teams more effective—augmenting their abilities rather than pursuing wholesale replacement, which is a common misconception among business leaders.
For founders, AI tools are excellent for quickly building an MVP to validate an idea and acquire the first few customers—the hardest step. However, these tools are not yet equipped for the large-scale, big-picture thinking and edge-case handling required to scale a product from 100 to a million users. That stage still requires human expertise.
Being an "AI pessimist" means being a realist about the technology's limits. As a prime example, OpenAI—the leader in the field—used traditional, human-led analog filmmaking for its first TV commercial. This move demonstrates that AI is a powerful tool within a creative process, not a replacement for entire creative industries or human skill.
The true normalization of AI in business will likely occur when the generation who grew up with it (e.g., high schoolers when ChatGPT launched) enters the workforce around 2028-2032. These "AI natives" will have an intuitive understanding of its capabilities and limitations, moving past the hype to practical, everyday application as a standard tool.