Don Struyven says Brent's fair value is $85, yet prices are around $112, and the oil market was balanced last month. He attributes essentially all of the recent increase to a roughly $27 war-risk premium, which could fade quickly if a sustainable diplomatic solution emerges.
Don Struyven says Persian Gulf crude exports are at 110% of 2025 averages, but refined products like diesel are only at 40%. Russian drone attacks and Middle East refinery damage keep diesel tight, while refiners chasing diesel margins squeeze gasoline by switching output away from it.
Don Struyven says global average crude freight is up $20 per barrel, with three quarters tied to rerouting supply, risk premiums and tied-up tankers. He notes Americas producers near refiners get cheaper crude, while distant Asian refiners pay more and ultimately pass costs to consumers.
Don Struyven says European TTF gas is around €90; better Qatari LNG exports could lower it to €70, but low Middle East flows plus a cold winter could push it to €150 and spill into power prices. He still sees it below 2022's €300 peak.
Don Struyven says copper is up 35% year over year and could gain another 10% by the end of next year to 15,600. The U.S. is stockpiling ahead of possible tariffs, while China's weak recycled scrap supply drives refined copper demand, leaving inventories outside the U.S. low.
Don Struyven says central banks bought gold at five times the pre-2022 average over the last three months, after Russia's reserves were frozen. Higher rates challenge investor demand, but he sees significant upside if the Fed stops hiking after December, since some hikes are already priced in.