The US once viewed ocean exploration as a co-equal goal to the moon landing. However, the death of an aquanaut in the Navy's Sea Lab program, combined with budget diversions to the Vietnam War and heavy classification during the Cold War, halted this momentum for 50 years.
While China vastly outproduces the US in ships and aerial drones, the underwater drone space is a domain where the US can still gain a decisive advantage. Both countries produce only hundreds of autonomous underwater vehicles annually, operating on the same order of magnitude.
The seasteading movement was a good idea that was simply too early. It lacked essential technologies that are only now becoming available, such as affordable satellite internet (Starlink), autonomous cargo delivery, and robotic underwater maintenance, which drastically reduce operating costs.
Startups struggle to sell into mining because large incumbents build new commercial-scale plants very infrequently, perhaps only once every five years. This creates few opportunities to integrate new technology, forcing startups into a prolonged "pilot purgatory" as they wait for the next construction cycle.
Beyond top-down industrial policy, China's edge in critical minerals comes from a vast, skilled, and experienced labor force that can be mobilized at incredible scale. A single Chinese nickel refinery in Indonesia recently had 13,000 workers on-site, a scale of mobilization nearly impossible in the West.
The mining industry is bifurcated. "Junior" mining companies, which don't actually mine, specialize in exploration with the sole goal of defining a resource and increasing its value enough to sell it to a major mining corporation. This creates a distinct ecosystem of exploration-focused firms.
Mineral refineries are complex systems with up to a thousand control variables. A change in one part of the circuit may not cascade through the system for 24-48 hours. This high latency, combined with recycled material flows, makes optimization incredibly difficult for human operators.
To mobilize trillions in private capital for the mining industry, the government's most powerful lever is supporting the demand side. Providing offtake agreements with price floors for critical minerals reduces market price uncertainty, giving infrastructure funds the annuity-like returns they require to invest.
The idea for Radiant's portable nuclear micro-reactors originated from a practical problem at SpaceX: how to generate megawatts of power on Mars to create fuel from ice. Solar power was insufficient, leading Elon Musk to suggest exploring nuclear, which ultimately inspired the founder's new company.
Despite growing excitement, there is no real nuclear "industry" yet. The current moment is akin to the era before the Wright brothers' first flight. Several startups are on the verge of demonstrating new reactor designs, but until these are built and proven, the industry remains nascent and unformed.
Radiant's one-megawatt, trailer-sized reactors are not designed to compete with large, centralized power plants. Their target market is off-grid applications like remote communities, islands, or military bases, where the primary alternative is expensive diesel fuel (e.g., over $6.50 per gallon).
The biggest bottlenecks for the nuclear sector aren't just reactor design. The industry needs a competitive, free market for nuclear fuel and enrichment, along with a centralized national repository for waste. Solving these systemic issues is a prerequisite for startups and the broader industry to thrive.