Not all oil demand destruction is equal. The consumer shift to EVs makes gasoline demand loss "sticky" and permanent. However, petrochemical and jet fuel demand losses are mostly temporary, as large-scale substitutes are not yet available, and will likely rebound as supply conditions normalize.
A sharp drop in gasoline and diesel demand in China is not matched by a similar drop in road transport activity. This divergence indicates that miles are still being driven, but increasingly in electric vehicles and on electrified high-speed rail, representing substitution of energy sources rather than a collapse in economic activity.
Despite a massive 9% drop in oil demand, China experienced little visible disruption. This wasn't due to a government conservation campaign but rather consumers independently shifting to cheaper, lower-carbon alternatives like EVs and subways in response to higher fuel prices, a form of quiet economic choice.
The 1973 oil shock forced economies to use energy more efficiently, such as through fuel economy standards. In contrast, the current crisis, with viable alternatives like EVs and renewables readily available, is accelerating a more profound shift: the complete decoupling of economic activity from oil consumption itself.