Focusing on the EU's average gas storage level is misleading. The unprecedented 30-point gap between Germany's low (57%) and Italy's high (87%) storage creates a setup for extreme price volatility this winter, as northern Europe faces a supply crunch that aggregate numbers hide.
While a short-term diesel export ban might temporarily lower prices, it threatens the long-term viability of the U.S. refining industry. By capping the upside for refiners during periods of scarcity, it discourages multi-decade investment in export-oriented capacity, ultimately weakening a key strategic asset.
While Qatari crude oil exports are recovering post-conflict, LNG flows remain minimal. This disparity is driven by physical and logistical constraints. LNG requires specialized, high-value vessels that are harder to insure and ill-suited for the ship-to-ship transfers that have become common for crude oil.