Restarting oil flows through a conflict zone is not an automatic, logistical process. It requires a cascade of confidence-based decisions from four distinct human layers: port authorities, tanker companies, ship captains, and seafarer unions. This human factor introduces significant delays, estimated at two months for normalization.
A sharp divergence between oil futures and physical prices for immediate delivery served as a leading indicator of a market shift. The "dated Brent" physical price collapsed from $145 to $116, not due to new supply, but because negative margins forced European refiners to cut production, signaling demand destruction on the ground.
Damage to major smelters has created a ~2 million ton aluminum supply deficit, the largest since 2000. Even with positive news like the Strait of Hormuz reopening, this physical gap remains. This creates an asymmetric risk where good news doesn't fix the core problem, but bad news could significantly worsen it.