European natural gas prices exceeded 80 euros per megawatt-hour despite warm September temperatures halving heating degree days and trimming demand. Geboadze attributes this pricing disconnect to Brent crude trading above $100, an LNG tanker attack near Hormuz, and depleted German gas storage tracking near historic lows.
J.P. Morgan projects that rising global liquefaction capacity, including 200 BCM entering the market across 2028 and 2029 led by the United States, will ease tight fundamentals. Geboadze expects this wave of supply to restore the pre-war dynamic where future supply expectations govern pricing rather than European storage inventories.
While Strait of Hormuz LNG vessel exits reached a wartime high utilization of 30%, actual loading utilization dropped to roughly 5%. Geboadze explains this divergence stems from a lack of incoming empty vessels inside the Gulf, prompting J.P. Morgan to model a normalized Qatar utilization rate of only 20%.