The market is pricing a significantly larger risk premium into Brent crude oil compared to natural gas. Analysts believe potential disruptions from U.S.-Iran talks would primarily impact Iranian oil exports, rather than cause wider disruptions to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which would affect gas prices.
The UK gas market (NBP) differs structurally from mainland Europe's (TTF) due to its minimal storage capacity—1.7 BCM versus Germany's 23 BCM. This forces the UK to effectively use the European market as its storage, which creates a price differential and makes its market closely linked to and dependent on the continent.
J.P. Morgan raised its 2026 European gas price forecast due to a tighter market outlook. This is caused by two key factors: higher summer import demand to refill depleted storages after a cold winter, and a significant new supply source, Qatar's North Field East project, being delayed from 2026 to early 2027.