To avoid being cut off from frontier AI, non-US countries can offer US hyperscalers incentives like subsidized energy for building data centers locally. In return, they can demand contractual guarantees for frontier model access, creating leverage against future US government-imposed restrictions.

The push for stricter US government action against China's AI practices is not just from politicians. Leading AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are pressuring Washington to curb Chinese 'distillation' of their models, framing it as a threat to national security and America's lead in AI.

Labs like Anthropic, Meta, and OpenAI are aligning with different political sides, while Google aims for neutrality. This intertwining of AI development with partisan politics could lead to labs being favored or blacklisted depending on the administration in power.

A key strategy for middle powers is to offer fast, efficient data center construction to leading US AI labs. In return for alleviating the labs' 'inference crunch', these nations can negotiate guaranteed access to new frontier models at the same level as the US commercial market, ensuring they aren't left behind.

In a significant policy shift, the White House is exploring a "partnership" with AI labs that could involve the government taking financial stakes. This idea, floated by both Senator Bernie Sanders and President Trump, signals a move towards treating frontier AI as a national strategic asset.

Beyond simple security concerns, the US government is poised to use its control over frontier AI model deployment to pursue broader strategic interests. Access could be withheld from allies to gain leverage in unrelated negotiations, such as trade deals, turning AI into a tool of foreign policy.

Reid Hoffman advises Europe against trying to replicate US hyperscalers. Instead, governments should offer streamlined access to energy and data center permits to US tech giants in exchange for compute resources, enabling European companies to build competitive AI applications.

The U.S. faces significant challenges in permitting and energy infrastructure for large-scale AI data centers. Gulf states like the UAE offer regulatory arbitrage, vast energy resources, and the ability to build at "Chinese rates," making them critical partners for deploying the American AI stack quickly.

Instead of competing on model development, middle powers can secure a vital role by dominating physical bottlenecks in the AI supply chain, such as advanced manufacturing, robotics, or pharmaceutical production. This creates a mutual dependency with AI leaders like the US, ensuring their participation in the future economy.