During due diligence, it's crucial to look beyond returns. Top allocators analyze a manager's decision-making process, not just the outcome. They penalize managers who were “right for the wrong reasons” (luck) and give credit to those who were “wrong for the right reasons” (good process, bad luck).

Analysis of Keynes's portfolio reveals a subtle skill: his true value-add came from ensuring his lowest-conviction ideas received minimal capital. Over his career, his bottom five positions shrank from 11.7% to just 6% of his portfolio, demonstrating a disciplined approach to managing risk on less-certain bets.

Even with big wins, a venture portfolio can fail if not constructed properly. The relative size of your investments is often more critical than picking individual winners, as correctly sized successful investments must be large enough to overcome the inevitable losers in the portfolio.

In a world of highly skilled money managers, absolute skill becomes table stakes and luck plays a larger role in outcomes. According to Michael Mauboussin's "paradox of skill," an allocator's job is to identify managers whose *relative* skill—a specific, durable edge—still dominates results.

The firm's "Capital System" combines top ideas from various analysts and portfolio managers into a single fund. This structure deliberately avoids exposure to any single manager's low-conviction holdings, creating what is effectively a "best ideas" portfolio.

The central task for capital allocators is to identify investment managers with a proven, durable edge—be it in sourcing, operations, or strategy—that allows them to consistently capture alpha in markets that are otherwise becoming more efficient.

The investment industry is obsessed with finding the "best" managers. However, an allocator's primary role is active portfolio management: ensuring the firm's money-weighted return exceeds its time-weighted return by dynamically sizing positions and ensuring proper portfolio fit.

An effective strategy combines passive management for low-dispersion public equities with active management for high-dispersion private markets. For publics, tax-managed passive funds generate reliable tax alpha. For privates, active selection is crucial to capture significant outperformance from top-quartile managers.

The goal of diversification is to hold assets that behave differently. By design, some part of your portfolio will likely be underperforming at all times. Accepting this discomfort is a key feature of a well-constructed portfolio, not a bug to be fixed.