The AI industry is hitting data limits for training massive, general-purpose models. The next wave of progress will likely come from creating highly specialized models for specific domains, similar to DeepMind's AlphaFold, which can achieve superhuman performance on narrow tasks.

For specialized, high-stakes tasks like insurance underwriting, enterprises will favor smaller, on-prem models fine-tuned on proprietary data. These models can be faster, more accurate, and more secure than general-purpose frontier models, creating a lasting market for custom AI solutions.

The perception of LORAs as a lesser fine-tuning method is a marketing problem. Technically, for task-specific customization, they provide massive operational upside at inference time by allowing multiplexing on a single GPU and enabling per-token pricing models, a benefit often overlooked.

Instead of relying solely on massive, expensive, general-purpose LLMs, the trend is toward creating smaller, focused models trained on specific business data. These "niche" models are more cost-effective to run, less likely to hallucinate, and far more effective at performing specific, defined tasks for the enterprise.

The primary driver for fine-tuning isn't cost but necessity. When applications like real-time voice demand low latency, developers are forced to use smaller models. These models often lack quality for specific tasks, making fine-tuning a necessary step to achieve production-level performance.

The "agentic revolution" will be powered by small, specialized models. Businesses and public sector agencies don't need a cloud-based AI that can do 1,000 tasks; they need an on-premise model fine-tuned for 10-20 specific use cases, driven by cost, privacy, and control requirements.

Enterprises will shift from relying on a single large language model to using orchestration platforms. These platforms will allow them to 'hot swap' various models—including smaller, specialized ones—for different tasks within a single system, optimizing for performance, cost, and use case without being locked into one provider.

The binary distinction between "reasoning" and "non-reasoning" models is becoming obsolete. The more critical metric is now "token efficiency"—a model's ability to use more tokens only when a task's difficulty requires it. This dynamic token usage is a key differentiator for cost and performance.

Fine-tuning remains relevant but is not the primary path for most enterprise use cases. It's a specialized tool for situations with unique data unseen by foundation models or when strict cost and throughput requirements for a high-volume task justify the investment. Most should start with RAG.