Beyond traditional economic factors, climate change creates persistent inflationary pressure. Its impact on harvests drives up food and commodity prices, while increased natural disasters raise insurance and reinsurance rates. This is a crucial, often overlooked, long-term factor in macro analysis.
The rapid construction of AI data centers is creating a huge surge in electricity demand. This strains existing power grids, leading to higher energy prices for consumers and businesses, which represents a significant and underappreciated inflationary pressure.
While a major contributor to emissions, the agricultural industry is also more vulnerable to climate change impacts than almost any other sector. This dual role as both primary cause and primary victim creates a powerful, intrinsic motivation to innovate and transition from a "climate sinner to saint," a dynamic not present in all industries.
The CPI averages costs across 80,000 items, many of which are non-essentials or luxury goods. This method masks the true, higher inflation rate on basic necessities. For example, while the CPI showed a 72% cost increase over two decades, the actual cost of essentials like housing, food, and healthcare rose by a much larger 97%.
The way we grow food is a primary driver of climate change, independent of the energy sector. Even if we completely decarbonize energy, our agricultural practices, particularly land use and deforestation, are sufficient to push the planet past critical warming thresholds. This makes fixing the food system an urgent, non-negotiable climate priority.
Contrary to narratives about excess demand, the recent inflationary period was primarily driven by supply-side shocks from COVID-related disruptions. Evidence, such as the New York Fed's supply disruption index accurately predicting inflation's trajectory, supports this view over a purely demand-driven explanation.
The prospect of future climate events is having immediate, tangible economic consequences. Rising insurance rates and reduced coverage availability in at-risk areas like Florida and California are already depressing property values and the broader economic outlook, demonstrating that climate risk is a current, not just future, problem.
It's the volatility and unpredictability within the supply chain environment—rather than the magnitude of a single shock—that can dramatically amplify the inflationary effects of other events, like energy price spikes. This suggests central banks need situation-specific responses.
Insurers like Aviva are finding it increasingly difficult to price risk for predictable climate-related catastrophes, such as houses repeatedly built on known floodplains. The near-inevitability of these events makes them uninsurable, prompting the creation of hybrid government-backed schemes where the private market can no longer operate.
History suggests that if inflation remains high for too long, it can alter public psychology. Businesses may become less hesitant to raise prices, and consumers may grow more accepting of them. This shift can create a self-perpetuating feedback loop, or 'snowball' effect, making inflation much harder for the central bank to control.
The longevity of above-target inflation is a primary concern for the Fed because it can fundamentally alter consumer and business behavior. Historical models based on low-inflation periods become less reliable. Businesses report being surprised that consumers are still accepting price increases, suggesting pricing power and inflation expectations may be stickier than anticipated.