Experts warn against over-interpreting a single negative ctDNA test after surgery, clarifying that these patients still face a significant 25-30% risk of recurrence. The biomarker's true prognostic power comes from serial testing that shows a patient remains persistently negative over time.
True early cancer detection involves finding microscopic tumor DNA in blood samples. This can identify cancer years before it's visible on an MRI, creating an opportunity for a patient's own immune system to potentially eliminate it before it ever becomes a clinical disease.
The negative ANSA-RAD trial, when contrasted with the positive STAMPEDE trial, demonstrates that patient selection is paramount in adjuvant therapy. The difference in outcomes was driven by risk definition, not the drug. This reinforces that "negative" trials are clinically vital for defining which patient populations do not benefit, preventing widespread overtreatment.
With highly active agents yielding 30% complete response rates, the immediate goal should be to cure more patients by exploring potent combinations upfront. While sequencing minimizes toxicity, an ambitious combination strategy, such as ADC doublets, offers the best chance to eradicate disease and should be prioritized in clinical trials.
In adjuvant bladder cancer trials, ctDNA status is both prognostic and predictive. Patients with positive ctDNA after surgery are at high risk of relapse but benefit from immune checkpoint inhibitors. Conversely, ctDNA-negative patients have a lower risk and derive no benefit, making ctDNA a critical tool to avoid unnecessary, toxic therapy.
AI identified circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) testing as a highly sensitive method for detecting cancer recurrence earlier than scans or symptoms. Despite skepticism from oncologists who deemed it unproven, the speaker plans to use it for proactive monitoring—a strategy he would not have known about otherwise.
High relapse rates (~70%) in surgery-alone arms of recent trials suggest most patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) already have micrometastatic disease. This reframes the disease, prioritizing early systemic therapy over immediate surgery to achieve control and potential cure.
While doctors focused on the immediate, successful treatment, the speaker used AI to research and plan for the low-probability but high-impact event of a cancer relapse. This involved proactively identifying advanced diagnostics (ctDNA) and compiling a list of relevant clinical trials to act on immediately if needed.
The Rampart study's use of the Leibovic score for risk stratification is a key strength. Unlike traditional TNM staging, this score more heavily weights tumor grade, which clinicians find to be a more granular and clinically relevant predictor of recurrence risk than just tumor size.
The interpretation of ctDNA is context-dependent. Unlike in the adjuvant setting, in the neoadjuvant setting, remaining ctDNA positive post-treatment signifies that the current therapy has failed. These high-risk patients need a different therapeutic approach, not an extension of the ineffective one.
Experts are divided on the optimal strategy for CT-DNA negative patients post-surgery. One side advocates for monitoring to spare patients from unnecessary treatment toxicity, while the other questions if this delay is non-inferior to immediate adjuvant therapy, a critical question not yet answered by trials.