Morgan Stanley projects a dramatic increase in China's contribution to global medicine, with assets developed in China expected to represent about a third of all new US FDA approvals by 2040, a significant rise from just 5% today.

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The U.S. market's high prices create the large profit pool necessary to fund risky drug development. If the U.S. adopted price negotiation like other countries, the global incentive for pharmaceutical innovation would shrink, resulting in fewer new drugs being developed worldwide.

China has developed a first-rate biotech effort, enabling U.S. firms to buy or license preclinical assets more efficiently than building them domestically. This creates an arbitrage opportunity, leveraging China's R&D capabilities while relying on U.S. expertise and capital for global commercialization.

Rapidly aging populations in China, Japan, and Korea are creating a broad 'longevity economy'. Investment drivers extend beyond traditional healthcare and pharma into sectors like affordable healthy foods, specialized wealth management, and pension system reforms, creating a comprehensive new consumer and financial market.

China is no longer just a low-cost manufacturing hub for biotech. It has become an innovation leader, leveraging regulatory advantages like investigator-initiated trials to gain a significant speed advantage in cutting-edge areas like cell and gene therapy. This shifts the competitive landscape from cost to a race for speed and novel science.

The Orphan Drug Act successfully incentivized R&D for rare diseases. A similar policy framework is needed for common, age-related diseases. Despite their massive potential markets, these indications suffer from extremely high failure rates and costs. A new incentive structure could de-risk development and align commercial goals with the enormous societal need for longevity.

Faced with China's superior speed and cost in executing known science, the U.S. biotech industry cannot compete by simply iterating faster. Its strategic advantage lies in

China is poised to become the next leader in biotechnology due to a combination of structural advantages. Their regulatory environment is moving faster, they have a deep talent pool, and they can conduct clinical trials at a greater speed and volume than the U.S., giving them a significant edge.

Unlike labor-dependent services that get more expensive, prescription drugs offer a unique societal ROI because they eventually go generic and become cheaper. This deflationary aspect is a powerful, underappreciated argument for investing in drug development, as successful medicines provide compounding value to society over time.

The next decade in biotech will prioritize speed and cost, areas where Chinese companies excel. They rapidly and cheaply advance molecules to early clinical trials, attracting major pharma companies to acquire assets that they historically would have sourced from US biotechs. This is reshaping the global competitive landscape.

Despite US-China tensions threatening innovation, the likely outcome is 'coopetition'—a blend of competition and collaboration—as global pharmaceutical firms navigate the dual imperatives of advancing innovation and ensuring supply chain resilience.