Massive AI and cloud infrastructure spending by tech giants is flooding the market with new debt. For the first time since the 2008 crisis, this oversupply, not macroeconomic fears, is becoming a primary driver of market volatility and repricing risk for existing corporate bonds.

Unlike prior tech revolutions funded mainly by equity, the AI infrastructure build-out is increasingly reliant on debt. This blurs the line between speculative growth capital (equity) and financing for predictable cash flows (debt), magnifying potential losses and increasing systemic failure risk if the AI boom falters.

A new risk is entering the AI capital stack: leverage. Entities are being created with high-debt financing (80% debt, 20% equity), creating 'leverage upon leverage.' This structure, combined with circular investments between major players, echoes the telecom bust of the late 90s and requires close monitoring.

Unlike the dot-com or shale booms fueled by less stable companies, the current AI investment cycle is driven by corporations with exceptionally strong balance sheets. This financial resilience mitigates the risk of a credit crisis, even with massive capital expenditure and uncertain returns, allowing the cycle to run longer.

The AI infrastructure boom has moved beyond being funded by the free cash flow of tech giants. Now, cash-flow negative companies are taking on leverage to invest. This signals a more existential, high-stakes phase where perceived future returns justify massive upfront bets, increasing competitive intensity.

Tech giants are issuing massive amounts of highly-rated debt at a discount to fund AI expansion. This makes existing, lower-rated corporate bonds from other sectors look less attractive by comparison, forcing a repricing of risk and higher borrowing costs across the credit spectrum.

The AI boom's funding is pivoting from free cash flow to massive bond issuances. This hands control to credit investors who, unlike vision-driven equity investors, have shorter time horizons and lower risk appetites. Their demand for tangible near-term impact will now dictate the market's risk perception for AI companies.

The enormous capital needed for AI data centers is forcing a shift in tech financing. The appearance of credit default swaps on Oracle debt signals the re-emergence of large-scale debt and leverage, a departure from the equity and free-cash-flow models that have characterized the industry for two decades.

Unlike past tech booms funded by venture capital, the next wave of AI investment will come from hyperscalers like Google and Meta leveraging their pristine balance sheets to take on massive corporate debt. Their capacity to raise capital this way dwarfs the entire VC ecosystem, enabling unprecedented spending.