An AI stock market bubble, like the dot-com bubble of the late 90s, is primarily equity-financed, not debt-financed. Historically, the bursting of equity bubbles leads to milder recessions because they don't trigger systemic failures in the banking system, unlike collapses fueled by debt.

Massive AI and cloud infrastructure spending by tech giants is flooding the market with new debt. For the first time since the 2008 crisis, this oversupply, not macroeconomic fears, is becoming a primary driver of market volatility and repricing risk for existing corporate bonds.

Recent stress in credit card and auto loan markets is concentrated in loans originated in 2021-2023 when stimulus and looser standards prevailed. Lenders have since tightened, and newer loan portfolios are performing better, suggesting the problem is not spreading systemically.

Specific market bubbles (like dot-com or AI) popping don't typically cause broad recessions. Historically, the Fed creates a boom by lowering rates, then triggers a bust by raising them to fight the resulting inflation. This cycle is the true culprit of most recessions.

Despite tight spreads signaling caution, the current market is not yet cracking. Parallels to 1997-98 and 2005—periods with similar capex, M&A, and interest rates—suggest a stimulative backdrop and a major tech investment cycle (AI) will fuel more corporate aggression before the cycle ultimately ends.

With fewer traditional credit cycles, the most fertile ground for distressed investing lies in industry-specific downturns caused by technological or policy shifts. These "microcycles" offer opportunities to invest in good companies working through temporary, concentrated disruption.

Unlike the dot-com or shale booms fueled by less stable companies, the current AI investment cycle is driven by corporations with exceptionally strong balance sheets. This financial resilience mitigates the risk of a credit crisis, even with massive capital expenditure and uncertain returns, allowing the cycle to run longer.

Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, which was a debt-fueled credit unwind, the current AI boom is largely funded by equity and corporate cash. Therefore, a potential correction will likely be an equity unwind, where the stock prices of major tech companies fall, impacting portfolios directly rather than triggering a systemic credit collapse.

Unlike the dot-com bubble, which was fueled by widespread, leveraged participation from retail investors and employees, the current AI boom is primarily funded by large corporations. A downturn would thus be a contained corporate issue, not a systemic economic crisis that triggers a deep, society-wide recession.