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Short seller Fahmi Quadir's strategy for terminal fraud involves analyzing executives' behavior, looking for non-market pressures that could cause a psychological collapse. For Wirecard, the arrest of a key associate, not just financial scrutiny, triggered the company's downfall.

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'The Assassin' Fahmi Quadir is launching her first-ever long strategy, targeting undervalued Korean companies. She believes her expertise in identifying fraud and obfuscation can be repurposed to unlock value in firms with complex, historically depressed structures amid Korea's corporate governance reforms.

The psychology of a successful short seller involves immense patience and the willingness to be wrong most of the time. The ultimate reward is not just financial but psychological: the 'delicious' feeling of being proven magnificently right for a brief period when the consensus fails.

Permira's Ian Jackson suggests recent fraud-related bankruptcies aren't isolated incidents but historical indicators that easy money is disappearing, exposing underlying problems in over-leveraged companies.

Many white-collar criminals are otherwise intelligent, successful leaders who want their firms to succeed. Their misconduct stems from environmental pressures and psychological distance from consequences, rather than inherent malicious intent. This challenges the simplistic view that only bad people do bad things.

Beyond aiding investigators, AI also empowers potential bad actors. Carson Block notes that a savvy CEO can use large language models to identify their company's vulnerabilities from a short seller's perspective, allowing them to preemptively build defenses and make it harder for activists to expose them.

Short seller Fahmi Quadir argues deep research no longer reliably moves stock prices due to widespread grift and momentum chasing. Consequently, even conviction short sellers must now operate like factor investors, timing trades around narrative breaks and momentum shifts to be profitable.

Fahmi Quadir explains that businesses with deteriorating fundamentals will almost always resort to financial engineering to hide their problems. This creates a powerful link for short sellers: identifying a company with a broken business model is a strong indicator of potential accounting fraud.

To prove Luckin Coffee was faking sales, short-seller Muddy Waters hired over 90 full-time staff for on-the-ground surveillance. This shows that uncovering well-orchestrated corporate fraud often requires an operational investigation that goes far beyond analyzing financial reports alone.

Hedge funds that short stocks are financially incentivized to find and publicize corporate wrongdoing early. They don't need 'proof beyond a reasonable doubt,' allowing them to flag issues like Super Micro's export violations months before the FBI could build a formal case, serving as a powerful early warning system for investors.

True Fraud Detection Requires Analyzing Perpetrators' Psychological Pressure Points | RiffOn