Unlike the US's public-private debate over Anthropic's powerful AI model, China's equivalent will involve a more consolidated power dynamic. A closely-held private company will face a much more aggressive government, creating a different and potentially more dramatic outcome for AI control.

China's seemingly contradictory AI policy—promoting both openness and strict control—stems from its view of AI as a "normal technology" akin to the internet. Unlike some in the West who see it as an existential risk, Beijing sees a technology that should be diffused as widely as possible for economic gain, while managing its risks with conventional tools like robust cybersecurity.

The intensity of Chinese AI regulation fluctuates with the government's confidence in its domestic industry. When feeling behind (post-ChatGPT), they eased up to foster innovation. After recent successes, they feel more secure and may re-assert stricter, more hands-on control.

In China, academics have significant influence on policymaking, partly due to a cultural tradition that highly values scholars. Experts deeply concerned about existential AI risks have briefed the highest levels of government, suggesting that policy may be less susceptible to capture by commercial tech interests compared to the West.

Beijing manages new technologies in three distinct phases. First, it 'Controls' political and speech risks (censorship). Second, it 'Harnesses' economic potential (e.g., AI+ initiatives). Finally, it 'Governs' the broader societal impacts like labor displacement and addiction.

Analysts should be skeptical of Xi's promises of global AI cooperation, drawing parallels to his 2017 Davos speech. At Davos, he championed free trade just before imposing harsh economic coercion on South Korea. This history suggests his lofty rhetoric on AI may serve immediate diplomatic goals while masking more confrontational long-term strategies.

The powerful National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) disciplined the founders of AI firm Manus, not a typical cybersecurity agency. This involvement from a top economic body indicates that AI is now treated as a core component of China's central industrial and economic strategy.

Xi Jinping's emphasis on "openness" in AI may be primarily aimed at a domestic audience. It serves to reassure Chinese AI researchers and developers that a harsh government crackdown, like the one against Jack Ma, is not imminent. This signaling encourages innovation by making them feel the government is on their side, at least for now.

China's ruling against replacing humans with AI is a strategic move by the CCP to maintain social stability and power. Facing massive youth unemployment and demographic decline, the government is prioritizing control over economic efficiency to prevent unrest, not genuinely protecting workers.