The concept of World War III as a repeat of WWII is outdated. The current global conflict is already underway, fought not with grand armies but through cyber attacks, economic leverage, proxy wars, and utility grid attacks—cheaper, more resilient forms of warfare.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates that the first move in modern warfare is often a cyberattack to disable critical systems like logistics and communication. This is a low-cost, high-impact method to immobilize an adversary before physical engagement.

Warfare has evolved to a "sixth domain" where cyber becomes physical. Mass drone swarms act like a distributed software attack, requiring one-to-many defense systems analogous to antivirus software, rather than traditional one-missile-per-target defenses which cannot scale.

The future of armed forces isn't a total replacement of traditional assets with drones. Instead, the dominant model will be a "hybrid force" that integrates expensive, crewed platforms like stealth jets and aircraft carriers with complementary unmanned systems like "loyal wingmen" drones and autonomous ships for scouting and high-risk missions.

The rise of inexpensive, attributable drones has fundamentally altered modern warfare. A small swarm can overwhelm a multi-billion-dollar destroyer's defenses, making it nearly impossible for traditional naval superpowers to project force and keep strategic waterways like the Strait of Hormuz open.

Despite facing conventionally superior US and Israeli forces that can degrade its missile and nuclear capabilities, Iran leverages low-cost asymmetric tactics like drone strikes. This strategy allows it to inflict continuous damage and prolong the conflict without needing to match its adversaries' military might.

The conflict in Ukraine demonstrates that modern warfare is rapidly changing due to AI, which enables fast, iterative development of low-cost drones. Investing in swarms of intelligent drones is now more strategically important than traditional, expensive military assets like aircraft carriers.

A wargame simulating a Strait of Hormuz conflict just before the actual events accurately foresaw the outcome: a low-intensity, cyclical "drone war" with no decisive military solution. This highlights the value of wargaming in setting realistic expectations for conflicts that lack clear military resolutions.

The conflict with Iran highlights a new reality in warfare. Inexpensive, easily produced drones create an asymmetrical threat, as defense systems are vastly more expensive to deploy per incident, making traditional defense economically unsustainable.