The US faces a stark choice driven by its fiscal reality. It can either reindustrialize around the military-industrial complex, selling weapons to profit from global conflicts, or continue sending aid abroad, accelerating its path to bankruptcy and the collapse of domestic social programs.
Republicans and Democrats contribute equally to the nation's fiscal crisis via different tactics. Republicans gut the IRS and cut taxes while Democrats expand spending. Both actions are popular with their respective bases and donors but push the country closer to bankruptcy.
When national debt grows too large, an economy enters "fiscal dominance." The central bank loses its ability to manage the economy, as raising rates causes hyperinflation to cover debt payments while lowering them creates massive asset bubbles, leaving no good options.
Luckey argues that US foreign policy is shifting away from direct military intervention. The new, more effective strategy is to arm allies, turning them into "prickly porcupines" that are difficult to attack. This approach maintains US influence and economic benefits while avoiding the political and human cost of deploying troops.
Instead of sending aid, the US could profit from global conflicts by becoming the primary manufacturer and seller of weapons. This approach would re-industrialize the nation, create high-paying jobs in the military-industrial complex, and generate revenue without direct military intervention or sending cash abroad.
Government money printing disproportionately benefits asset owners, creating massive wealth inequality. The resulting economic insecurity fuels populism, where voters demand more spending and tax cuts, accelerating the nation's journey towards bankruptcy in a feedback loop.
The gutting of the IRS is not an ideological choice but a symptom of a fiscal crisis. With unmanageable debt, politicians cannibalize institutions for short-term electoral gain, as traditional tax enforcement can no longer solve the core problem.
A critical political challenge is convincing citizens to accept necessary domestic budget cuts while simultaneously funding international alliances. The message fails when people already feel financially strained, making fiscal responsibility and global power projection seem mutually exclusive and out of touch.
A historical indicator of a superpower's decline is when its spending on debt servicing surpasses its military budget. The US crossed this threshold a few years ago, while China is massively increasing military spending. This economic framework offers a stark, quantitative lens through which to view the long-term power shift between the two nations.
The U.S. economy's only viable solution to its long-term debt and inflation is a "beautiful deleveraging"—a painful but controlled economic downturn. The alternative is delaying and being pushed off the cliff by market forces, resulting in a much more severe and uncontrolled crash.
The recent uptick in global conflicts, from Ukraine to the Caribbean, is not a series of isolated events. It's a direct result of adversaries perceiving American weakness and acting on the historical principle that nations expand their influence until they are met with sufficient counter-force.