The threat to gay rights comes not just from the traditional religious right, but from an emerging, politically expedient alliance. This "horseshoe" coalition includes post-liberal conservatives and hard-left parties courting socially conservative immigrant communities, particularly religious Muslim constituencies in Europe.

A faction on the right is adopting the language of oppression and victimhood, creating a "woke right." If mainstream conservatives fail to reject this identitarian fringe, they risk polluting their entire movement and losing the support of the moderate majority, repeating the same mistake that damaged the left.

Unlike established systems with clear rules (like Christianity), the modern left operates on "vague vibes" of ideological purity. This lack of a self-regulation mechanism creates a constant pressure to prove loyalty through extremism. As standards escalate, anyone who could provide a moderating influence is purged, leading to an endless cycle of radicalization.

The gay rights revolution was not an independent victory but an incidental consequence of broader societal shifts, analogized to Estonia's independence after the USSR's collapse. Straight society first changed marriage through contraception and no-fault divorce, creating a freedom-based paradigm that gay people were later included in.

A growing number of straight individuals are claiming a "queer" identity as "alphabet tourists" to gain social cachet as rebels. This is tone-deaf to the historical suffering of gay people who were involuntarily excluded. These tourists will likely abandon the community as soon as social tides turn against it.

Survey data shows declining public acceptance for LGBTQ+ people since the late 2010s. This is attributed not just to right-wing attacks, but to a public backlash against policies seen as 'objectively ridiculous,' creating a resentment that harms the entire community, not just trans people.

Contrary to the belief in inevitable progress, gay rights are an extremely recent phenomenon in human history. The gains of the last few decades are not guaranteed and can be rolled back, much like a business going bankrupt "slowly then quickly," as societal support erodes over time.

Issues like placing biological males in women's prisons create a rift between new-wave trans activists and traditional feminists. The latter feel that the safety and rights of vulnerable women are being sacrificed for ideological purity, leading them and other moderate progressives to withdraw support.

The addition of a '+' to the LGBTQ acronym, representing 'genders and sexual orientations that language cannot yet describe,' is a strategic error. It frames the movement's demands as ongoing and potentially limitless, alienating the heterosexual majority by asking them to sign a 'blank check' for undefined societal changes.