Gardner's public recommendation of Starbucks on ABC's *The View* immediately lost a third of its value. This story highlights the extreme volatility inherent in long-term investing. The ability to stomach severe, short-term drawdowns is a prerequisite for capturing life-changing returns over decades.
Scott Barbie's value fund experienced a massive drawdown before a 91% rally. This illustrates that systems with high variability show the strongest regression to the mean. If your investment theses are sound, a period of severe underperformance can be a leading indicator of a powerful recovery.
Graham adopted philosopher Baruch Spinoza's idea of viewing things "in the aspect of eternity" to teach investors to focus on long-term intrinsic value rather than getting caught up in the market's daily emotional swings, promoting a disciplined, long-term perspective.
The textbook value investing response—buying more as a stock falls—is often impractical. In firms focused on short-term performance, a stock dropping from $70 to $30 after a buy recommendation can get an analyst fired, even if the thesis is ultimately correct. This institutional pressure shortens time horizons.
Gardner actively seeks stocks that have already appreciated 30-90% in recent months. Instead of waiting for a pullback, he views this momentum as a key indicator that the market is recognizing a company's fundamental strength and cultural relevance, signaling future outperformance for the best businesses.
To pursue massive upside, one must first survive. Gardner mitigates risk by never allocating more than 5% of his portfolio to any new position. This discipline prevents catastrophic losses from a single bad idea, ensuring he stays in the game long enough for the big winners to emerge.
Stocks with the strongest fundamentals (top dog, sustainable advantage, great management) are often labeled "overvalued" by commentators. Gardner argues this perception is actually the ultimate buy signal, as the market consistently underestimates the long-term potential of true greatness.
Holding a winning stock is psychologically brutal. NVIDIA, one of the best performers ever, lost over 80% of its value in 2008 and 60% in 2022. Enduring these gut-wrenching drops, which are a normal part of the journey, is the price of admission for capturing life-changing gains.
Gardner notes that whenever he has broken his own rule and invested an "exciting amount" into a new idea, it has generally failed. This emotional excitement leads to poor decision-making and oversized bets on unproven theses. Strict discipline on initial position sizing is a crucial defense against one's own biases.
Gardner argues that avoiding losses stifles innovation and learning. True long-term gains, like in venture capital, come from embracing risk and accepting that many small losses are necessary to find the few massive winners that drive all returns.
While institutional money managers operate on an average six-month timeframe, individual investors can gain a significant advantage by adopting a minimum three-year outlook. This long-term perspective allows one to endure volatility that forces short-term players to sell, capturing the full compounding potential of great companies.