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Leno says late-night TV was damaged when a law allowed an extra eight minutes of commercials per hour after 11:30. The polished 30-second spots looked like two minutes of content. Streaming and fragmented audiences then made the old format dead, he says.
The rise of streaming has fundamentally changed the competitive landscape for new content. A new TV show is no longer just competing against other shows in its time slot. It is competing against the entire back-catalog of globally popular shows like 'Family Guy' and 'The Office,' which are instantly accessible to viewers.
Leno says an HBO special pays about a tenth of a penny per customer, while a live show can bring $25 or $50 per customer. He recommends doing 100 dates instead of giving all the material away for free on TV. It is a creator-monetization lesson from stand-up.
Networks like CBS spent a century building relationships and rate cards with major advertisers. By chasing the ad-free Netflix model, they discarded this institutional knowledge, which cannot be rebuilt overnight, leaving a vacuum for YouTube's ad-tech dominance.
Unlike ad-funded broadcast TV, streaming services rely on subscriber acquisition. This model makes long-running shows like 'ER' economically inefficient. After a few seasons, a show's ability to attract new users drops, making it cheaper for the platform to cancel it and launch a new series.
Streaming incumbents like Netflix may face greater long-term disruption from cheap, hyper-targeted short-form microdramas than from legacy studio competitors. Highly algorithmic, two-minute narrative clips capture consumer attention efficiently, directly encroaching on viewing hours historically dedicated to long-form scripted television.
A streaming executive revealed their business model requires viewers to watch a whole season in a weekend. This makes formats like game shows, which are consumed episodically, a poor fit, effectively ceding the entire genre to platforms like YouTube.
Richter argues that late-night talk shows, existing as cheap vehicles for celebrity publicity, are no longer relevant. The internet provides endless access to stars, making the traditional format of a celebrity telling a rehearsed story on a couch feel dated and uninteresting to modern audiences.
Despite retaining cultural relevance through viral clips, the core business of late-night television is broken. Since 2018, combined ad revenue has plummeted from $439M to $220M. The average show, which once profited $180M, now loses $40M per season, signaling an unsustainable model.
Legacy media like late-night TV is collapsing because its production model is economically unviable (e.g., 200 staff, losing $40M/year). Podcasts win by stripping away these costs. A top host can generate $20M in revenue with a team of six, creating a much more profitable model.
In their rush to compete with Netflix by focusing on prestige dramas, traditional TV networks abandoned profitable genres like talk shows, lifestyle, and news. This created a vacuum that YouTube filled, becoming the de facto provider for this content.