To survive against subsidized tools from model providers like OpenAI and Anthropic, AI applications must avoid a price war. Instead, the winning strategy is to focus on superior product experience and serve as a neutral orchestration layer that allows users to choose the best underlying model.

Contrary to fears of a monopoly, the AI market is heading toward a diverse ecosystem. The proliferation of open-weight models and specialized tooling allows companies to build and control their own differentiated AI systems rather than simply renting intelligence token-by-token from a handful of large labs.

Instead of chasing the latest hyped AI model, focus on building modular, system-based workflows. This allows you to easily plug in new, better models as they are released, instantly upgrading your capabilities without having to start over.

Enterprises will shift from relying on a single large language model to using orchestration platforms. These platforms will allow them to 'hot swap' various models—including smaller, specialized ones—for different tasks within a single system, optimizing for performance, cost, and use case without being locked into one provider.

Initially, even OpenAI believed a single, ultimate 'model to rule them all' would emerge. This thinking has completely changed to favor a proliferation of specialized models, creating a healthier, less winner-take-all ecosystem where different models serve different needs.

The initial AI rush for every company to build proprietary models is over. The new winning strategy, seen with firms like Adobe, is to leverage existing product distribution by integrating multiple best-in-class third-party models, enabling faster and more powerful user experiences.

The belief that a single, god-level foundation model would dominate has proven false. Horowitz points to successful AI applications like Cursor, which uses 13 different models. This shows that value lies in the complex orchestration and design at the application layer, not just in having the largest single model.

Like Kayak for flights, being a model aggregator provides superior value to users who want access to the best tool for a specific job. Big tech companies are restricted to their own models, creating an opportunity for startups to win by offering a 'single pane of glass' across all available models.

The most advanced AI users are 'polyamorous' with models, using an average of 3.5 different tools. This indicates a mature usage pattern where users select the best model for a specific job rather than relying on a single, all-purpose AI, challenging the 'winner-take-all' market theory.